NBR-大流行以来美国对中国的舆论趋势及其对中美关系的影响（英文）-2020.11-4页_304kb

Emerging Voices on THE NEW NORMAL IN ASIA: Summary

Core Content

This document explores the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on U.S. public opinion toward China, and how these changing perceptions may influence the U.S.-China relationship. The author, Naima Green-Riley, a PhD candidate at Harvard University, analyzes survey data from the Pew Research Center and the UC San Diego China Data Lab to highlight a significant shift in American attitudes toward China.

Main Points

U.S. Public Opinion Toward China

• Unfavorable views increased: In a 2020 Pew Research Center survey, 66% of Americans held unfavorable views of China, the highest since 2005.
• Perceived threat rose: 62% of respondents believed that Chinese power and influence posed a major threat to the U.S.
• Awareness of China grew: Despite the negative sentiment, Americans became more aware of China’s global influence. The average score for perceived Chinese influence increased from 0.76 to 0.79 on a 0–1 scale between September 2019 and May 2020.
• Name recognition improved: The percentage of Americans who could correctly name Chinese President Xi Jinping rose from 56% in September 2019 to 62% in May 2020.

Parallel Trends in Chinese Public Opinion

• Favorability toward the U.S. declined: Surveys from the UC San Diego China Data Lab show that the average favorability of Chinese views toward the U.S. dropped from 5.77 in June 2019 to 4.77 in May 2020 on a 1–10 scale.

Implications for the U.S.-China Relationship

• Electoral impact uncertain: While public opinion on China is prominent in campaign ads, it is unclear how much it directly influences vote choice. Social and fiscal issues are typically more decisive for U.S. voters.
• Consumer behavior affected: Negative sentiment toward China led to a 40% share of Americans avoiding Chinese-made products. This trend extended to technology services, with 35% of respondents very concerned and 29% somewhat concerned about Chinese companies managing U.S. social media apps.
• People-to-people exchange strained: Partisanship played a key role in shaping views on exchanges. 65% of Republicans supported limiting Chinese students in the U.S., while 57% of Democrats opposed such restrictions. Similarly, 66% of Republicans supported restricting scientific exchange, compared to 64% of Democrats who opposed it.

Key Information

• Survey timeframe: Data was collected between September 2019 and May 2020, during the early stages of the pandemic.
• Methodology: The analysis is based on Pew Research Center and UC San Diego China Data Lab surveys, as well as FTI Consulting and Morning Consult polls.
• Statistical significance: Many of the observed changes in public opinion were statistically significant at the 90% or 95% confidence level.
• Expert background: Naima Green-Riley is a Raymond Vernon Fellow at Harvard University, focusing on public diplomacy and how states influence foreign publics.

Conclusion

The pandemic has significantly altered U.S. public perception of China, leading to more negative views and a greater awareness of China’s global influence. These shifts have potential implications across political, economic, and interpersonal dimensions of the U.S.-China relationship. While the direct impact on electoral outcomes remains unclear, the decline in consumer confidence and increased restrictions on exchanges suggest that public opinion is shaping trends in bilateral engagement. The document highlights the complex interplay between public sentiment and international relations, emphasizing the need to understand how perceptions can affect policy and behavior in a post-pandemic world.