美国2025-2035年预算与经济展望（英）_46页_2mb

报告摘要

Budget and Economic Outlook Summary (2025-2035)

Revenues: Revenues as a percentage of GDP are projected to rise from 17.1% in 2025 to 18.3% by 2035, driven primarily by individual income taxes. This growth is influenced by scheduled expirations of 2017 tax provisions and higher taxable incomes.
Outlays: Outlays will increase from 23.3% of GDP in 2025 to 24.4% by 2035. Mandatory spending (Social Security and major health care programs) is the largest contributor, followed by net interest costs. Defense spending is projected to decline further after 2025, while nondefense discretionary spending decreases at a slower pace but still remains below historical levels.
Deficit and Debt: The deficit is projected to shrink to -5.5% of GDP by 2027 (adjusted for timing shifts). However, cumulative deficits through 2034 are expected to grow significantly, with debt held by the public rising to 118% of GDP by 2035, exceeding historical highs.

GDP Growth: Economic growth slowed in 2024 and 2025 but is projected to stabilize at an average of 1.8% from 2026 onwards. Productivity improvements account for most of this growth.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to decrease to approximately 2% by 2027, aligning with the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal.
Interest Rates: Long-term interest rates will decline moderately after 2026, supporting economic activity.

Rising mandatory spending, particularly for Social Security and Medicare, poses significant budgetary pressures.
Net interest costs are projected to increase, accounting for a higher percentage of total spending in coming years.
Continual debt growth threatens fiscal sustainability, necessitating policy adjustments.

Strategies to address deficits and debt may involve targeted reforms in mandatory spending programs or revenue enhancement through tax policy.
Economic policies should focus on sustaining growth and containing inflation while managing debt trajectory.

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