2025-05-20-Jefferies-暂未提及（HSIC）_暂未提及（NVST）_暂未提及（XRAY）_Align_Technology公司（ALGN）_第一季度更新ALGN_HSIC_NVST_XRAY_17页_212kb

Equity Research Update: Healthcare Information Tech (May 20, 2025)

This report provides comprehensive 1Q 2025 model updates and analysis for Align Technology (ALGN), Henry Schein (HSIC), Envista (NVST), and DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY), based on the latest earnings and financial data. All companies operate in the dental sector, with focused coverage on revenue growth, profitability, and valuation metrics. The key changes include revised financial projections, price targets, and investment theses. Model updates reflect adjustments for factors like new product launches, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic headwinds. Below is a concise summary of each company's highlights.

Align Technology (ALGN)

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: $260
• Model Updates: FY25-27E revenues now $4.15B, $4.39B, $4.61B (prior: $4.09B, etc.), and FY25-27E adjusted EBITDA ests $1.08B, $1.17B, $1.24B (prior: similar). Upside driven by products like IPE and Lumina, with strong innovation pipeline.
• Valuation: Currently trades at ~13x EBITDA, PT justified by undisclosed multiple expansion assumptions.
• Investment Thesis: Long-term growth opportunity in orthodontics, with high differentiation and R&D strengths.
• Risks: Macroeconomic uncertainty, competition, discretionary spending risks.
• Catalysts: New product uptake, share repurchases.

Henry Schein (HSIC)

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: $78
• Model Updates: FY25-27E revenues $12.96B, $13.42B, $13.91B (prior): similar adjustments), and FY25-27Eadjusted EBITDA ests now $1.11B, $1.17B, $1.23B.
• Valuation: Trading at ~11x EV/EBITDA, PT assumes eventual multiples of 11.5-12x EV/EBITDA, reflecting margin expansion and strategic opportunities.
• Investment Thesis: Strong distribution position with consistent growth potential in dental and medical sectors.
• Risks: Competitive pressures, macroeconomic headwinds on DSO volumes, inability to regain market share from cyberattacks.

Envista (NVST)

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: $20
• Model Updates: FY25-27E revenues $2.55B, $2.63B, $2.70B (prior: similar), and FY25-27E adjusted EBITDA ests $358M, $381M, $406M. Focus on Spark business growth but margins are diluted.
• Valuation: Trading at ~8x EBITDA, PT based on 9x EBITDA as macro headwinds ease.
• Investment Thesis: Potential for core growth in implants and affordable healthcare products, but growth has been slower than expected.
• Risks: Heightened competition in implants, failure to achieve cost-out initiatives, ASP pressures.

DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY)

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: $17
• Model Updates: FY25-27E revenu $3.65B, $3.73B, $3.80B (prior): similar), and FY25-27E adjusted EBITDA ests $700M, $744M, $784M. Turnaround emphasis due to Phase 2 reorganization.
• Valuation: Trading at ~7-8x EBITDA, PT based on ~8x multiple expansion.
• Investment Thesis: Position to benefit from digital dentistry; turnaround story includes revenue decline in 2025 but medium-term EPS potential closer to $3.
• Risks: Competitive pressures, cyberattack recovery uncertainties, macro recession.

Key Overall Changes

• Revisions for each company focus on improved outlooks with specific growth catalysts, though multiple of risks persist.
• Valuations are based on current financials and historical comparisons (e.g., ALGN at 15x vs historical average).
• Analyst coverage led by Michael Sarcone, with sustainability, risk management, and long-term growth central to the analysis.