2015年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Recent_trends_in_EU_home_ownership_8页_1mb

Recent Trends in EU Home Ownership (ECRI Commentary No. 15, 2015)

Core Content

The document examines recent trends in home ownership across the EU28, highlighting the impact of economic and policy factors on ownership rates. It focuses on the population approach to measure the owner occupation rate (OOR), which is used by Eurostat for consistent data collection.

Main Methodologies

Two primary methodologies are used to calculate OOR:

• Dwelling Approach: Measures the ratio of owner-occupied homes to the total number of homes. It provides insight into housing supply and unoccupied dwellings.
• Population Approach: Measures the ratio of inhabitants living in owner-occupied homes to the total population. It emphasizes population needs and is used for policy calibration.

The paper opts for the population approach due to its widespread use and policy relevance, even though the dwelling approach may offer more detailed insights into housing stock.

Heterogeneity Across EU28 Members and Over Time

Country Groupings

1. Low OOR Countries (Below EU28 Average):

   • Includes Germany, Austria, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden, and Ireland.
   • These countries have developed strong rental markets, often due to specific policy objectives.

2. Moderate OOR Countries (EU28 Average to 80%):

   • Southern European countries such as Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, and Spain.
   • Ownership is promoted as a means of social stability, and barriers to public rental management have existed.
   • Strong intergenerational transfers contribute to higher ownership rates.

3. High OOR Countries (Above 80%):

   • Former communist economies (excluding Slovenia): Czech Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, and Romania.
   • High OORs are attributed to national policies in the 1990s that promoted home ownership through subsidies.

Trends Over Time

• The overall OOR in the EU15 remained broadly stable between 2007 and 2013, with the exception of Ireland and the UK, where OORs dropped significantly (by 10 percentage points).
• Denmark and Belgium saw the most dramatic declines among northern European countries.
• Spain experienced a marked contraction in OORs, while Italy had a minimal decline.
• The UK and Ireland faced severe challenges due to rising unemployment, leading to increased mortgage arrears and repossessions.

Impact of Household Composition

Income Level

• In 2013, households with income below 60% of the median (the poverty line) had significantly lower OORs, especially in western and northern Europe.
• The poorest households in the EU15 experienced marked contractions in OORs between 2007 and 2013, which had negative economic and social implications.

Household Size and Structure

• Larger households (with dependent children and multiple adults) generally had higher OORs.
• Single-person households had lower OORs than the average.
• Single-person households with dependent children recorded the lowest OORs.
• The contraction in OORs was more pronounced in households with dependent children in Ireland and the UK, while the opposite trend was observed in Finland, Greece, Italy, and Luxembourg.

Key Findings

• Home ownership is influenced by a combination of economic conditions, policy frameworks, and household characteristics.
• Ireland and the UK have seen the most significant drops in OORs, driven by economic crises, high unemployment, and tightened lending standards.
• Poorer households in the EU15 have experienced substantial declines in home ownership, exacerbating poverty and reducing wealth.
• The population approach is more suitable for analyzing ownership trends at the European level due to its consistency and policy relevance.

Policy Implications

• The mortgage credit directive (scheduled for implementation in 2016) may further influence housing finance and ownership.
• Housing policies in southern Europe have historically favored ownership, while northern and western Europe have prioritized rental markets.
• There is a need for targeted housing policies to support poorer households and ensure adequate social housing supply.

Conclusion

Home ownership in the EU28 is a complex issue with significant regional and demographic variations. The document highlights the contraction in ownership among poorer households and the sharp decline in the UK and Ireland, suggesting that these trends are influenced by both economic factors and policy decisions. The analysis underscores the importance of policy coherence and support mechanisms for vulnerable groups in the housing market.