2025-05-22-Jefferies-阿斯特拉尔有限公司（ASTRA）_季度表现符合预期；PVC趋势值得关注_13页_992kb

Astral Limited Equity Research Summary

Company Overview: Astral Limited is an Indian company specializing in CPVC pipes, fittings, adhesives, and paints, with a focus on diversified industrial products.

Financial Performance:

• Q4 FY25 in-line with estimates.
• FY25 saw a ~18% decline in PVC prices (from Rs 93/kg to Rs76/kg), impacting industry demand but stabilizing margins.
• Projected Plumbing volume CAGR of +10% for FY25-27.
• Target price: Rs 1,565, with a PE ratio of 55x, above the historical 10-year average.

Business Updates:

• Bathware sales grew +51% YoY to Rs1.2bn.
• Capacity enhanced to 382K MT for plumbing, with new product launches and certifications (e.g., UL for FirePro fittings, ISI for O-PVC products).
• Adhesives business grew +14% YoY, Paints +6%, new product lines targeting exports.

Outlook:

• Revenue growth driven by double-digit volume expansion, new categories, and capacity additions.
• Consolidated sales/PAT CAGR of +14%/19% over FY25-28.

Key Risks:

• Downside risks: Demand slowdown, raw material volatility, competition.
• Upside potential: Faster new product ramp-up, adhesives growth, exports.

Valuation:

• Current PE ~60x FY26E, 15% above historical average.
• Analyst rating: HOLD due to rich valuation despite growth prospects.