20210818-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2021.08.18_29页_1mb

Summary of the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Report (August 18, 2021)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for 2021 and 2022, focusing on production, export, import, and price trends.

Major Export Destinations for U.S. Animal Products in 2021

• Beef: 12% of U.S. beef production was exported in the first half of 2021, with 75% going to Asia.
• Pork: Asia accounted for over 50% of pork exports, with pork exports making up 28% of domestic production.
• Lamb and Mutton: Only 2% of production was exported, with a significant portion going to Mexico and other international markets.
• Eggs and Egg Products: 4% of U.S. egg production was exported in the first half of 2021, with the largest share going to Asia.
• Poultry: 12% of production was exported, with Mexico as the largest single destination (22% of exports).
• Dairy: Over 50% of dairy exports went to Asia on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis.

U.S. Cattle Industry Trends

• Cattle Herd: Estimated at 100.9 million head in July 2021, down 1% from 2020.
• Beef Cows: 31.4 million head, 2% lower than a year ago.
• Dairy Cows: 9.5 million head, 2% higher than last year.
• Calf Crop: 35.1 million head, slightly down from last year.
• Beef Cullings: Producers are expected to cull more cows due to forage shortages, leading to lighter carcass weights.
• Carcass Weights: Average carcass weights were 15 pounds lower than the previous year in July.
• Feedlot Cattle: 11.3 million head on feed, down 1% from the same time last year.

Beef Production and Price Forecasts

• 2021 Beef Production: Revised down to 27.872 billion pounds from 28.202 billion pounds, due to lighter carcass weights.
• Beef Prices:
  • 2021 annual fed steer price forecast increased to $121.2 per cwt.
  • 2022 annual fed steer price forecast increased to $126 per cwt.
  • Feeder steer prices also increased, with 2021 forecast at $145.1 per cwt and 2022 forecast at $152 per cwt.

Beef Import Trends

• June 2021 Imports: 320 million pounds, up 3.9% from June 2020.
• Major Suppliers:
  • Canada: 25% of total imports, slightly down from 2020.
  • Australia: Down 18.4% year-over-year, but June shipment was the largest since November.
  • New Zealand, Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina: All showed significant increases in exports.
• Annual Forecasts:
  • 2021 beef import forecast increased to 3.117 billion pounds.
  • 2022 forecast increased to 3.150 billion pounds, due to lower domestic production and slaughter.

Beef Export Trends

• June 2021 Exports: 267 million pounds, up 85 million pounds from June 2020.
• Major Destinations:
  • Japan: 24% of exports, with favorable tariff rates.
  • South Korea: 24% of exports, supported by strong demand.
  • China: Largest contributor to the increase, with 45.9 million pounds exported in June.
• Annual Forecasts:
  • 2021 beef export forecast lowered to 3.384 billion pounds.
  • 2022 forecast lowered to 3.270 billion pounds due to slower slaughter pace and limited supplies.

Dairy Market Trends

• Wholesale Prices:
  • Cheddar Cheese: Rose to $1.6599 per pound (+12.3 cents).
  • Butter: Fell to $1.7068 per pound (-8.0 cents).
  • Nonfat Dry Milk: Rose to $1.2677 per pound (+1.2 cents).
  • Dry Whey: Fell to $0.5810 per pound (-4.8 cents).
• International Prices:
  • Prices for dairy products declined from June to July across major regions.
  • China's Import Demand: Drives strong global dairy prices.
• Dairy Production:
  • June 2021 Production: 18.955 billion pounds, up 2.9% from June 2020.
  • Milk Cows: 9.5 million head in June, up slightly from May but down from June 2020.
  • Replacement Heifers: 4.1 million head on July 1, 100,000 more than July 1, 2020.
• Dairy Exports:
  • June 2021 Exports: 961 million pounds on a milk-fat basis, 4.514 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis.
  • Butter Exports: 8.1 million pounds in June, down from April and May but up from June 2020.
• Dairy Imports:
  • June 2021 Imports: 701 million pounds on a milk-fat basis, 545 million pounds on a skim-solids basis.
  • Imports of Milk Protein Products: 25.9 million pounds, up from May and June 2020.

Domestic Use of Dairy Products

• 2021-Q2 Domestic Use:
  • Milk (milk-fat basis): Averaged 600 million pounds per day, up 3.4% from 2020-Q2.
  • Milk (skim-solids basis): Averaged 493 million pounds per day, down 0.3% from 2020-Q2.
• Cheese Use: Increased by 10.8% and 5.4% for American and other-than-American type cheese, respectively.
• Butter Use: Declined by 8.3% from 2020-Q2, likely due to reduced home consumption.
• Dry Skim Milk Products: Domestic use has declined every quarter since 2020-Q2, as prices increased and exports remained strong.

Dairy Ending Stocks

• June 2021 Ending Stocks:
  • Milk (milk-fat basis): 20.032 billion pounds, a record high.
  • Milk (skim-solids basis): 12.006 billion pounds, up 811 million pounds from June 2020.
• Butter Stocks: 414.5 million pounds in cold storage at the end of June, up 2.6 million pounds from May.

International Dairy Outlook

• 2021 Global Milk Production: Projected at 673.0 billion pounds, up 1.3% from 2020.
• Major Dairy Exporters:
  • United States: Projected at 228.1 billion pounds, up 2.2% from 2020.
  • European Union: Projected at 349.4 billion pounds, up 0.6%.
  • New Zealand: Projected at 49.4 billion pounds, up 1.9%.
  • Australia: Projected at 20.3 billion pounds, up 1.0%.
  • Argentina: Projected at 25.8 billion pounds, up 2.8%.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

• Drought Impact: Affecting cattle and dairy production, with 32% of the cattle inventory in drought-affected areas as of August 3, 2021.
• Export Demand: Strong demand from Asia and Latin America continues to support export volumes.
• Domestic Consumption: Shifts in consumption patterns, such as increased home cooking, have influenced demand for certain products like butter and cheese.
• Price Volatility: Prices for dairy products have been mixed, with some rising and others falling due to supply and demand dynamics.