世界银行-2023年叙利亚地震：快速损失和需求评估（RDNA）（英）-2023.3-134页_12mb

Syria Earthquake 2023: Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment Summary

Core Content

The World Bank conducted a Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) for Syria following the earthquakes on February 6 and February 20, 2023, which had significant impacts on the country's population, infrastructure, and services. The assessment covers six governorates with approximately 10 million inhabitants and provides an in-depth analysis of nine cities. It aims to estimate the damage and losses, identify recovery needs, and offer guidance for early recovery and long-term reconstruction.

Main Objectives

• Assess the impact of the earthquake on physical assets, infrastructure, and service delivery.
• Provide preliminary estimates of infrastructure reconstruction and service restoration needs.
• Inform the World Bank and the international community about the disaster's impact and required assistance.

Key Findings

Total Estimated Impact

• Physical damages: US$3.7 billion
• Losses: US$1.5 billion
• Total impact: US$5.2 billion

Reconstruction and Recovery Needs

• Total needs: US$7.9 billion
• Year 1 needs: US$3.7 billion
• Years 2–3 needs: US$4.2 billion

Sector-wise Breakdown

Key Information

Methodology

• The RDNA utilized remote data sources, including satellite imagery, social media analytics, anonymized cellphone data, and night lights data.
• It focused on the pre-earthquake baseline of physical assets and relied on data triangulation to improve accuracy.
• The assessment was conducted without collaboration with the Syrian government due to the ongoing conflict.

Temporal Scope

• Damage data were collected between February 24 and March 5, 2023.
• The assessment covers the immediate (0–12 months) and short-term (1–3 years) recovery periods.

Geographical Scope

• The six most impacted governorates: Aleppo, Hama, Idlib, Latakia, Raqqah, and Tartous.
• In-depth analysis of nine cities: Aleppo, Harem, Jableh, Afrin, Ad-Dana, Jandairis, Azaz, Sarmada, and Latakia.

Sectoral Scope

• The RDNA covers 10 main sectors and 4 cross-cutting areas: Housing, Health, Education, Municipal Services, Cultural Heritage, Transport, Water, Power, Agriculture, Digital Development, Public Institutions, Environment, Social Protection and Livelihoods, and Social Sustainability and Inclusion.

Economic Impact

• The Syrian economy, previously projected to contract by 3.2%, is now expected to decline by 5.5% due to the earthquake.
• The projected increase in inflation from 44% to 60% is attributed to supply chain disruptions and higher transport costs.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to rise slightly from 8.6% to 8.8% of GDP.
• The current account deficit is projected to increase from 2.5% to 3.2% of GDP due to higher imports for reconstruction.

Population Impact

• Approximately 6.6 million Syrians live in areas impacted by the earthquake at intensity VI or higher.
• The earthquake adds to the existing 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) caused by the conflict.
• Vulnerable lower middle-income families in the informal sector are particularly affected.

Guiding Principles for Recovery and Reconstruction

• Focus on early recovery (0–12 months) by addressing immediate needs such as emergency shelter and basic service restoration.
• Shift to rebuilding infrastructure and supporting livelihoods in the short term (1–3 years).
• Emphasize seismic resilience, sustainability, and inclusivity in recovery strategies.
• Prioritize the restoration of essential health services and the rebuilding of education infrastructure with child-centered and green designs.

Limitations

• The assessment is based on remote data and may not capture all details due to data constraints.
• Certain sector losses, such as those in underground water infrastructure, could not be fully assessed.
• The RDNA is an indicative overview and should not replace in-depth sector-specific analyses.

Acknowledgments

• The assessment was led by Joy Aoun and Ayaz Parvez.
• The team included various consultants, analysts, and specialists from the World Bank, EU, and UN.
• Support was received from the World Bank's Development Data Partnerships team and IPSOS for remote sensing and analytics.
• The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) provided financial and technical support.

Conclusion

The RDNA provides a comprehensive overview of the earthquake's impact on Syria, highlighting the urgent needs for reconstruction and recovery. It underscores the importance of addressing both the immediate and long-term effects of the disaster, while also considering the compounding impacts of the conflict and other crises. The report serves as a critical tool for guiding international aid and policy decisions in the context of Syria's protracted conflict and disaster response.