2011年-世界发展银行全球_Timor-Leste_Country_Program_Evaluation_2000-2010___Evaluation_of_the_World_Bank_Group_Program_233页_11mb

Summary of World Bank Group Country Program Evaluation in Timor-Leste (2000-2010)

Core Content

This report evaluates the outcomes of the World Bank Group (WBG) program in Timor-Leste from 2000 to 2010. The evaluation highlights the WBG's role in supporting the country's development, particularly in the context of post-conflict recovery and state-building. The program was structured around three main pillars: (1) provision of basic social services and poverty alleviation, (2) governance and development of state institutions, and (3) promoting a sustainable and diversified non-petroleum sector for job creation and economic growth.

Main Viewpoints

• Strategic Alignment: The WBG strategy aligned with Timor-Leste's development aspirations but became less relevant and effective over time.
• Mixed Outcomes: The program had mixed results. It was highly satisfactory in managing petroleum revenues and veterans' issues, moderately satisfactory in health and education, and unsatisfactory in other areas such as poverty alleviation, youth unemployment, and the development of non-petroleum sectors.
• Weaknesses in Implementation: The WBG's approach often lacked focus, leading to diffuse efforts. There were also issues with the effectiveness of capacity-building initiatives and the alignment of policies with local realities.
• Need for Reform: The evaluation recommends that the WBG should improve its program management, focus on key results, and enhance its support for human resource development and governance.

Key Information

1. Context

• Timor-Leste emerged from a long period of conflict and transition.
• The country faced very difficult initial conditions but made significant progress since 1999.
• The economy was heavily dependent on petroleum revenues.
• A strong international donor presence influenced development efforts.

2. World Bank Group Strategy and Program

• The WBG aimed to support the country in three areas: poverty alleviation, state institution development, and sustainable non-petroleum growth.
• The program included 39 operations, funded by IDA, IBRD, and various donor trust funds.
• IFC engaged in four advisory services during the period.

3. Pillar I: Basic Social Services, Social Protection, and Poverty Alleviation

• Health Sector:

  • The WBG supported four projects and four DPOs to improve access and quality of health services.
  • While many health centers and hospitals were built, progress was less than expected.
  • Strict adherence to procurement rules delayed the delivery of equipment for new hospitals.
  • Rating: Moderately Satisfactory.

• Education Sector:

  • The WBG supported six projects and four DPOs to improve access and quality of education.
  • Enrollment rates improved, but the quality of education remained poor.
  • Language barriers significantly hindered progress.
  • Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory.

• Poverty and Unemployment:

  • Short-term social safety net projects were effective in early years but not sustainable.
  • The WBG failed to address long-term unemployment and social assistance for the most vulnerable.
  • Rating: Unsatisfactory.

• Youth Unemployment and Disaffection:

  • No evidence of increased youth empowerment or reduced disaffection.
  • Youth issues were a major factor in the 2006 civil strife.
  • The Bank's response was delayed and limited.
  • Rating: Unsatisfactory.

• Veterans' Programs:

  • The WBG supported the registration of veterans and the drafting of the Veterans Law.
  • A pension system was established, with initial payments made in 2008.
  • Rating: Moderately Satisfactory.

4. Pillar II: Governance and State Institution Development

• State Capacity:

  • Institutional capacity was uneven and remained weak in many ministries.
  • The government still relied heavily on foreign advisers.
  • Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory.

• Fiscal and Public Financial Management (PFM):

  • Improved budget execution through foreign advisors.
  • The procurement system was not meeting expectations and needed reform.
  • The Petroleum Fund was effective and transparent.
  • Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory.

• Legislation:

  • New laws and institutions were created to improve governance and accountability.
  • However, their implementation was constrained by staff shortages and weak alignment with local legal systems.
  • New institutions like the Ombudsman and Inspector General were mostly ineffective.
  • Rating: Unsatisfactory.

5. Pillar III: Sustainable and Diversified Non-Petroleum Sector

• Private Sector Development (PSD):

  • The WBG aimed to stimulate private investment through improved access to credit and infrastructure.
  • There was limited progress in developing a robust regulatory framework.
  • Rating: Unsatisfactory.

• Agriculture:

  • The WBG supported projects to increase production and productivity.
  • No significant improvement in agricultural output or productivity during the evaluation period.
  • Food insecurity remains a serious issue.
  • Rating: Unsatisfactory.

• Energy:

  • The WBG focused on the power sector and hydrocarbon management.
  • There was progress in the hydrocarbon sector, but limited achievements in the power sector.
  • Rating: Unsatisfactory.

6. Donor Coordination

• The report highlights the need for better alignment and harmonization among donors.
• Coordination challenges were identified as a key barrier to effective program delivery.

7. Conclusion and Recommendations

• Overall Assessment: The program's outcomes were moderately unsatisfactory.
• Recommendations:
  • Set a clear objective for non-oil growth and job creation.
  • Sharply prioritize the program and be realistic about time frames.
  • Focus on human resource development for institution-building and governance.
  • Follow guidance for working in fragile states.
  • Improve the management of assistance programs and strengthen policy and technical advice.
  • Ensure IFC interventions are of sufficient scale.
  • Bolster monitoring and evaluation (M&E) by focusing on key results and improving statistical capacity.

Summary of Outcome Ratings

Key Findings

• The WBG's support for Timor-Leste was generally aligned with the country's goals but became less effective over time.
• Success was most notable in the petroleum sector and veterans' programs.
• Challenges persisted in poverty alleviation, education, and agriculture.
• The Bank's approach to capacity building was often too broad and lacked strategic focus.
• The evaluation emphasizes the need for improved program management, better alignment with local realities, and more effective M&E systems.