2025-06-11-Jefferies-米其林（ML）_2025年息税前利润下降2_农业股似乎已在预期转机_10页_350kb

Michelin Equity Research Summary

Rating and Price Target
Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating for Michelin (Ticker: ML FP) with a price target of €43.00, representing a 32% upside from the current closing price of €32.66 on June 12, 2025. This targets a 2026E EV/EBIT of 9x.

Estimate Changes
The 2025 estimate for Selling, General, and Administrative (SOI) earnings is lowered by 2% to €1.5bn, consistent with current market consensus. No changes are made to 2026E and 2027E forecasts, with SOI expected at €4.3bn and €4.5bn respectively at constant FX. Both 2025E and 2026E SOI estimates imply guidance is met, despite a -4% versus consensus in 2025.

Earnings Growth and Drivers
Michelin's 2025E EBIT is estimated at €3,270 billion, a 2% decline from consensus due to weak agricultural tire markets and forex headwinds. The company benefits from improving agricultural and truck cycles, which are now priced into ag stocks, providing support. Ag stocks anticipate recovery, but Michelin's valuation remains around 9x PE, below its 3-year average. In ag upcycles, Michelin historically shows stronger earnings growth (e.g., 10% in 2019 outperformance), underpinning 2026E guidance.

Key Growth Sectors
Mining and specialty tire segments show improvement, with mining accounting for ~30% of SR3. Upward trends in 1Q25 indicate better inventory levels and strong aircraft sales, expected to continue. Michelin's exposure to structural trends, such as larger tires and EVs, supports long-term growth.

Risks and Market Position
Input cost inflation (e.g., raw materials) and potential tariffs (US/anti-dumping) pose risks to earnings. Agricultural market volatility remains a concern, though Michelin's diversified portfolio helps mitigate impacts. Current multiples are attractive compared to peers; valuation metrics like EV/EBIT (8.9x) and P/E (9.5x) suggest upside.

Financial Projections and Outlook
2025E revenue reaches €27,229 billion (+0.1% compared to 2024A), with EBIT margin improving slightly to 12.0%. By 2026E, revenue is expected to grow to €28,892 billion and EBIT to €4,000 billion, with a target SOI of €4.3bn at constant FX, reflecting ~20% growth in 18 months. The company targets 13.8% EBIT margin in 2026, driven by structural trends and improved automotive business performance.

Long-Term Thesis
Michelin is well-positioned for structural trends like EVs and larger tires, offering strong growth through 2026. Sustainability focuses include carbon neutrality targets and sustainable materials by 2050. Upside scenarios could see sales at €30bn in 2026 with 13.8% margins, while downside risks highlight recurring inflation and competitive pressures.

Catalysts and Risks
Catalysts include ag cycle recovery, strong quarterly results, and M&A opportunities. Risks involve value-destructive mergers, low-cost imports returning, and geopolitical factors. Recommended monitoring for monthly volume trends and raw material prices.