2025-01-21-莱坊-UK_Logistics_Market_Dashboard_November_2024_4页_1mb

报告摘要

Investment Activity: Investment activity in the UK industrial and logistics sector is expected to increase in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023. As of October, the total investment in Q4 stands at £924 million, and the annual total for 2024 is projected to reach £7.7 billion, potentially matching or exceeding the £8.6 billion total for 2023.
Investor Behavior: REITs and listed property companies have been more active in acquisitions in 2024, accounting for 15% of the investment, compared to 5% in 2023 and 6% in 2022. Institutional investors have accounted for 16% of the market this year, down from 20% in 2023 and 23% in 2022.
Yield Trends: Ten-year gilt yields have softened slightly in October, ending at 4.29% (as of 10/12/2024). In contrast, UK industrial equivalent yields have hardened, showing a 3bps increase from 6.27% in September to 6.24% in October. This represents a 16bps decline from the same period a year ago, with a 180bps premium over gilt yields, the narrowest since October 2023.

Asset Type	2024 (%)	2025 (%)	2026 (%)	2027 (%)	2028 (%)	2024-28 CAGR (%)
Industrial	7.4	9.4	9.0	8.1	7.1	8.4
Office	-0.3	6.6	8.5	8.0	7.3	7.6
Retail	8.2	8.9	8.8	7.8	6.7	8.1
Other	6.1	8.1	8.5	8.0	7.2	8.0
All Property	5.1	8.4	8.8	8.0	7.1	8.1

Take Up: Occupier take up in Q3 2024 totalled 9.4 million sq ft, matching the previous quarter's figure. The year-to-date total is 27 million sq ft, compared to 30 million sq ft in 2023.
Vacancy Rate: The vacancy rate across the UK at the end of Q3 2024 was 7.3%, up from 6.9% in Q2. A modest increase is expected by year-end.
Notable Transactions: In November, Inspired Global Cuisine (IGC) took up Oldham 369, a 369,000 sq ft facility in Oldham, North West. In December, Vantage Data Centres purchased the Former Wilko DC in Magor, Wales, to reduce vacancy in the region.

Annual Growth: Average rents for UK industrial properties continued to grow, with an annual growth rate of 6.09% in October, down slightly from September's 6.27%.
Monthly Growth: Monthly rental growth in October was 0.39%, compared to 0.72% in September.
Forecast: RealFor's Q3 2024 forecasts show an upward revision for UK industrial rental growth, with 5.5% expected for 2024, slowing to 3.7% in 2025, and a CAGR of 3.5% (2024-2028), up from 3.3% projected in Q2.
Regional Growth: The South West region is expected to see the most substantial rental growth this year at 8.1%, while London leads in rental growth expectations over the five-year forecast with a CAGR of 4.1%.

Completions: Approximately 20 million sq ft of new industrial and logistics stock is expected to complete in 2024, including both available and pre-committed space.
Pipeline: A current pipeline of around 20 million sq ft is under construction and expected to complete in 2025. Developers are incentivized to bring forward new schemes due to supply constraints in certain size bands and specific markets.

PMI Index: The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in November, the lowest since February, indicating a contraction in the sector. Concerns over the economic outlook, costs, and weak demand have led to cutbacks in staffing, purchasing, and inventory.
Export Activity: Export order books remain below normal, with continued weakness in new export businesses. This is attributed to reduced demand from the US, China, and EU.
Political Uncertainty: Output has underperformed expectations, with manufacturers citing uncertainty around the UK Budget, US elections, and political instability in Europe as factors.
Online Retail Sales: Online retail penetration (excluding auto fuel) remained stable at 27.7% in October. Online grocery retail penetration was stable at 9.4%, showing a modest decline post-pandemic but remaining resilient compared to the broader online retail market.

Claire Williams
Head of UK & Europe Industrial Research
+44 20 3897 0036 | +44 20 7861 519
Claire.Williams@knightfrank.com
Johnny Hawkins
Head of Logistics & Industrial
+44 20 7861 1519
Johnny.Hawkins@knightfrank.com
Will Gubb
Head of Industrial & Logistics Capital Markets
+44 20 7861 1595
Will.Gubb@knightfrank.com
Charles Binks
Partner, Industrial & Logistics Agency
+44 20 7861 1146
Charles.Binks@knightfrank.com