2022-08-12-兰德-中美系统性冲突的情景预演（英）_156页_2mb

Summary of “The Return of Great Power War” by Timothy R. Heath, Kristen Gunness, et al.

This report explores scenarios of systemic conflict between the United States and China under hypothetical conditions where China has near global primacy. Key findings include:

Geopolitical Trends

• China's economy may surpass the U.S. in nominal GDP by the 2030s, narrowing the power gap.
• The global order is becoming multipolar, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence.
• Fragmentation and disorder in international institutions may hinder collective responses to conflicts.

Military Developments

• China prioritizes long-range precision strike capabilities, hypersonic missiles, and unmanned systems.
• Both nations face challenges from nontraditional threats, such as cyber warfare and AI-driven military innovations.
• The PLA may rely on proxy forces and indirect actions to minimize direct confrontation risks.

Conflict Scenarios

1. Low-Intensity War: Extended, indirect conflict involving proxy wars and gray zone operations worldwide, with minimal direct U.S.-China engagement.
2. High-Intensity War: Escalation to direct military clashes, potentially involving nuclear threats and multiple fronts.

Distinctive Features

• China likely emphasizes asymmetric warfare, cyber dominance, and information operations.
• Low-intensity war could last years, leveraging China's global infrastructure and alliances.
• Policymakers should focus on bolstering indirect conflict capabilities and securing vital chokepoints.

This analysis underscores the risks of power transition and the need for proactive defense planning in a volatile geopolitical landscape.