2018年全球可再生能源投资趋势（英文）_86页-10mb

2018 Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment report, published by the Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, provides an overview of the global renewable energy investment landscape from 2004 to 2017. It highlights the growth of renewable energy as a key driver of the global energy transition and outlines the challenges and opportunities for the sector.

Main Findings

• Global Investment: In 2017, global investment in renewable energy reached $279.8 billion, up 2% from 2016, but still 13% below the 2015 peak of $323.4 billion. Cumulative investment since 2004 totaled $2.9 trillion.
• Solar Dominance: Solar power accounted for 98 GW of new capacity in 2017, representing 38% of the total net new generating capacity added globally that year. China was the largest investor, contributing $126.6 billion or 45% of the global total.
• Cost Reductions: Solar and wind energy costs continued to decline, with the levelized cost of electricity for utility-scale solar dropping to $86 per MWh in 2017, a 72% decrease since 2009.
• Investment Trends by Region:
  • China remained the top investor, with a 58% increase in solar investment.
  • United Arab Emirates saw a 29-fold increase in renewable energy investment.
  • Mexico, Sweden, and Egypt also experienced significant growth.
  • U.S., U.K., Germany, and Japan saw declines, with the U.K. and Germany experiencing the largest drops due to policy changes and subsidy reductions.
• Developing vs Developed Economies:
  • Developing economies invested $177 billion in 2017, up 20%, while developed countries invested $103 billion, down 19%.
  • This marked the largest tilt towards developing countries in renewable energy investment history.

Key Trends and Views

• Maturity of the Sector: The report suggests that renewable energy is becoming a mature sector increasingly dominated by large industrial players, utilities, and institutional investors.
• Public Markets and VC/PE: Public markets investment dropped 6% to $5.7 billion, and VC/PE investment fell 33% to $1.8 billion, the lowest since 2005.
• Auctions and Tariffs: Renewable energy auctions globally set new record lows for tariffs, with Mexico achieving $20.80 per MWh for solar and $18.60 per MWh for onshore wind. In the U.K., offshore wind bids were 50% lower than in 2015.
• Challenges Ahead:
  • Private Sector Reliance: As government subsidies phase out, the sector faces the challenge of relying more on private sector financing.
  • Interest Rates: Rising interest rates could impact investment, as low rates have historically supported the sector.
  • Policy Uncertainty: In mature markets, policy changes and uncertainty have affected investment flows.

Investment by Type of Economy

• Developed Economies:
  • The U.S. invested $40.5 billion, a 6% decrease.
  • Europe saw a 36% drop, primarily due to U.K. and Germany policy shifts.
• Developing Economies:
  • China, India, and Brazil were key contributors.
  • China accounted for $45% of global investment, with a significant solar boom.
  • India and Brazil also saw substantial investment, although data is less detailed.

Sector-Specific Investment

• Solar and Wind: Dominated the investment landscape, with solar being the largest contributor.
• Biofuels and Marine Energy: Smaller but growing segments, with marine energy being highlighted in the report.
• Hydro: Excluded from the main analysis except for small hydro projects.
• Energy Storage and Smart Grid: Not the main focus but briefly discussed in Chapter 2.

Methodology and Definitions

• Investment Categories:
  • Venture Capital and Private Equity (VC/PE): Investment in early-stage and specialist companies.
  • Public Markets: Investment in publicly quoted companies.
  • Asset Finance: Funding for utility-scale projects (excluding large hydro).
  • Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Includes both asset acquisitions and refinancings.
• Data Sources: The report uses data from the Bloomberg New Energy Finance database, which tracks investment across the entire financing continuum from R&D to project financing.

Conclusion

The global renewable energy revolution is accelerating, with solar leading the charge. While developing countries are increasingly driving investment, mature markets face challenges due to policy shifts and reduced subsidies. The sector's future will depend on private sector engagement and cost reductions to maintain momentum towards a sustainable energy future.