2025-05-15-Jefferies-法国燃气苏伊士集团（ENGI）_2025年第一季度零售_能源管理服务显著超预期且重申全年指引_8页_159kb

Engie (ENGI FP) Equity Research Summary

Financial Performance (2025 Q1)

• 1Q25 EBIT excluding nuclear reached €3.7bn, representing a 13% beat versus JEF estimates and 10% better than consensus.
• Strong performance in Supply & Energy Management (previously GEMS) and Retail/B2B segments. Nuclear division also contributed positively.
• Economic net debt of €46.1bn, with a 3x leverage factor, leaving 1x ND/EBITDA headroom.

Business Segments Analysis

1. Renewables & Flex Power: 1Q EBIT fell 15% vs JEF estimates, impacted by lower renewables/BESS performance, though offset by Gas generation growth.
2. Infrastructures: EBIT was flat vs JEF estimates (+1% YoY), with Networks performing well (+63% YoY), but Local Energy Infrastructures underperformed (-18% YoY).
3. Supply & Energy Management: EBIT surged 78% YoY to €1.29bn, driven by significant beats in B2C retail and B2B/energy management.

Forward Guidance and Strategy

• FY25 guidance for EBIT ex-nuclear is €8.0-€9.0bn, reiterated on updated assumptions, aligning with revised market multiples.
• Engie is largely protected from US tariff increases on its ~2GW under-construction projects and is increasing local sourcing.

Valuation

• Target price €20.00, a 13% upside from current level, based on SOTP valuation and peer comparisons.
• Market cap €43.0B.

Risks

• General construction, political, project delays, and power price declines remain key risks.

Investment Rating

• Jefferies Rating: BUY, with a €20.00 price target.

Additional Notes

• Analysts highlight the company's renewable capacity growth target (7GW/year post-2025) and proactive supply chain adjustments.
• 1Q25 earnings call scheduled for 9am UK / 10am CET.