2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Cabo_Verde_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_76页_4mb

CABO VERDE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION SUMMARY

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV Consultation with Cabo Verde, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), concluded that the country's economic recovery is gaining momentum due to a more favorable external environment and the success of ongoing economic reforms. The consultation included a Staff Report, Press Release, Executive Director Statement, and other supporting documents.

Main Issues and Key Findings

Economic Recovery and Growth

• Growth: The economy expanded by 4% in 2017, driven by double-digit growth in tourist arrivals, recovery in private sector credit, and improved consumer and business confidence. Growth is projected to reach 4.3% in 2018 and stabilize at around 4% in the medium term.
• Inflation: Average inflation turned positive at 0.8% in 2017, mainly due to increased energy prices. It is expected to rise gradually to about 2% over the medium term.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit widened to 8.8% of GDP in 2017, largely due to increased imports and a decline in remittances, but was mostly financed by foreign direct investment (FDI). It is projected to increase to 9.5% of GDP in 2018 and remain around 10% in the medium term.

Public Debt and Fiscal Consolidation

• Public Debt: Public debt declined to 126% of GDP in 2017 from 129.5% in 2016, marking the first reduction in a decade. The 2018 budget targets a deficit of 3.1% of GDP.
• Fiscal Risks: Despite fiscal consolidation, public debt remains high. The authorities are urged to continue efforts to reduce the debt burden and address fiscal risks, especially from state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• Debt Sustainability: The risk of external debt distress is assessed as high and unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA). However, debt service remains manageable due to the concessional nature of external debt, which accounts for 75% of total public debt.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

• Monetary Policy: The Banco de Cabo Verde (BCV) cut its policy rate by 200 basis points to 1.5% in 2017, reflecting the absence of inflationary pressures and adequate reserves. However, excess liquidity in the banking system remains a challenge.
• Financial Stability: Financial stability indicators have improved, but the level of non-performing loans (NPLs) is still high. The BCV is encouraged to enhance liquidity management and improve the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
• AML/CFT Framework: The loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) is considered a vulnerability, especially given the country's reliance on remittances and deposits. The authorities are urged to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and cooperate with other jurisdictions.

Structural Reforms and Development

• Strategic Plan: The authorities have a Strategic Plan for Sustainable Development (2017–21) aimed at improving the business environment and governance. Structural reforms are critical for boosting potential output growth and reducing poverty.
• Labor Market and Education: Improving the efficiency and flexibility of the labor market, as well as the quality and relevance of education, is emphasized to address youth and female unemployment.
• Social Protection: Strengthening and better targeting social protection programs is recommended to support vulnerable populations.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: Continue fiscal consolidation, accelerate SOE restructuring, and ensure the realization of delayed public asset sales to reduce the risk of external debt distress.
• Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy: Maintain an accommodative monetary stance as long as there are no inflation or reserve pressures, while protecting the currency peg.
• Financial Sector: Strengthen bank regulation and supervision, facilitate the resolution of legacy NPLs, and improve the AML/CFT framework.
• Structural Reforms: Implement reforms outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategic Plan, enhance the credit information system, and promote financial intermediation through better collateral repossession mechanisms.

Risk Assessment

• External Risks: The current account deficit and public debt remain high. The loss of CBRs and weaker global growth are potential downside risks.
• Domestic Risks: Wavering fiscal consolidation efforts and delays in SOE restructuring and structural reforms could exacerbate vulnerabilities.
• Risk Matrix: The Risk Assessment Matrix highlights the need for continued efforts in fiscal adjustment, SOE restructuring, and structural reforms to improve productivity and competitiveness.

Outlook

• The next Article IV consultation is expected to be held on the standard 12-month cycle.
• The economic outlook is positive in the short term and broadly stable in the medium term, contingent on the implementation of the reform agenda.
• Continued focus on fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and financial sector resilience is essential for long-term growth and stability.

Selected Economic Indicators (2014–2023)

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended Cabo Verde's economic recovery and fiscal consolidation but emphasized the need for continued efforts to reduce public debt, address structural vulnerabilities, and enhance financial sector resilience. The country is encouraged to implement reforms that promote inclusive growth, improve competitiveness, and ensure sustainable fiscal and monetary policies.