深度报告-20230421-东吴证券国际经纪-半导体行业深度报告_海外观察系列十一_从艾睿和大联大等分销商_看半导体复苏_7页_776kb

Semiconductor Industry Recovery Analysis

Investment Outlook and Thesis

The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound by 2023, following a decline that began in mid-2021 due to weak demand, inventory buildup, and financial losses among foundries. Multiple signals, including inventory adjustments and demand recovery, indicate a cyclical upturn.

Role of Distributors

Distributors act as bridging entities between original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users, offering value through supply chain flexibility, technical services, and inventory management. Their performance, including revenue and inventory levels, serves as a barometer for industry health.

Competitive Landscape

Market concentration is increasing, with top distributors like Arrow and WPG holding significant market shares. Domestic players have low representation, but companies such as Shenzhen Kiwi, Shanghai Awinic, and Shanghai Bright Power Semi are key indicators. Mergers and acquisitions among distributors have slowed.

Financial Indicators

Distributor revenue generally aligns with foundry changes, while profits lag slightly. Inventory level changes are decisive: reductions signal demand recovery, followed by revenue growth. Historical data shows correlations with economic cycles and downstream demand shifts.

Application Drivers and AI Impact

The AI revolution, exemplified by demand for computing power, is expected to drive semiconductor recovery. Applications like data centers, IoT, and mobile phones will boost analog chip demand, with inventory depletion in distributors and foundries marking the beginning of a new cycle.

Investment Recommendations

Opportunities exist in companies showing distributor inventory decline, revenue recovery, and downstream demand improvement. Companies to watch include Shenzhen Kiwi, Shanghai Awinic, and Shanghai Bright Power Semi.

Risks

Potential risks include weaker-than-expected demand recovery and valuation over-valuation concerns.