2023-05-17-世界银行-利比里亚妇女人数_性别红利宏观模拟的证据（英）_42页_522kb

报告摘要

Liberian Women Count: Evidence from a Macrosimulation of the Gender Dividend

Liberian women make substantial economic contributions, representing 39% of the labor market output, for an annual value of US$1.08 billion in 2020, equivalent to 26.8% of GDP. They are primarily employed in low-productivity sectors like petty trade (86%) and agriculture.

The study utilizes a macrosimulation model adapted from Canning, Karra, and Wilde (2017) to estimate the "gender dividend"—the economic gains from closing gender gaps. Key findings include:

Current Contributions and Potential Growth

Total Economic Contribution: US$1.08 billion (4.05% of GDP).
Unaccounted Work: Non-tradable activities (housework, chores) add US$530 million to the economy, increasing GDP by 19.3% if valued monetarily, with women responsible for 53% of this output.

Gender Gap Closures and Economic Impact

Single-variable simulations show significant GDP growth if gender gaps are narrowed:

Gap Closed	GDP Growth	Women’s GDP Contribution	Key Mechanism
Education Gap (full closure)	8.4%	30.1%	Increased female participation in high-paying modern sector.
Fertility Decline (Net Rep. Rate)	3.1%	28.6%	Reduced dependency ratios, more women in modern sector.
Labor Force Participation	2.3%	30.1%	Larger workforce, higher output across sectors.
Gender Pay Gap (within sectors)	4.8%	(no target)	Higher wages for women, especially in traditional sector.
Sectoral Gender Gap (representation)	5.3%	36%	Women’s shift to productive modern sector.

Simultaneous Gaps Closure

Closing labor-relevant gaps (participation, wages, sectoral representation) boosts GDP by 11.5%, with women contributing 37.4% of GDP.
Fully closing all gaps (including education, fertility, labor, and pay gaps) increases GDP by 23.7%, reaching US$5.01 billion.
Including non-tradable production, GDP grows by 45.3%, with women contributing 41.4%.

Policy Implications

Gender equality is essential for economic growth and poverty reduction.
Women’s current contributions are undervalued, imposing economic costs on society.
Unified policies advancing women’s human capital, labor market opportunities, and non-tradable work recognition are critical.
The study emphasizes the long-term return on investments in closing gender gaps, aiming to achieve Vision 2030 goals for gender equity.

Note: The findings underscore the significant untapped potential of empowering women to drive Liberia’s economic growth.

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