欧洲央行-央行改革是否会带来更多的货币纪律_（英）-2025.4_53页_3mb

Summary

Key Findings:

1. Reps improving central bank independence (CBI) strengthen monetary discipline and central bank credibility, both having long-lasting effects.
2. Larger reforms enhance monetary discipline after a lag of about ten years.
3. The effects are stronger in democratic countries, countries with flexible exchange rates, and those without a formal monetary policy strategy .
4. CBI reforms have a greater impact where public debt-to-GDP ratios are high.
5. Reforms are more effective in countries that haven't reversed earlier reforms.

Policy Recommendations:

1. Strengthen CBI reforms and pair them with measures to enhance fiscal coordination, amplifying long-term inflation-stabilizing effects.
2. Prioritize preserving and strengthening institutional autonomy to ensure price stability.
3. Tailor reforms according to political contexts, as weak democratic institutions weaken CBI impacts.

Technical Note:

• Used novel econometrics like local projections and semiparametric methods to establish causality.