2016年-世界发展银行全球_Romania_Toward_a_Low_Carbon_and_Climate_Resilient_Economy___Urban_Sector_Analysis_6页_1mb

Romania: Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy Summary

Sector Overview

Romania is a low urbanized country by European standards, with an urbanization rate of 55% that has remained relatively stable over the past two decades. However, there is a notable suburbanization trend around major cities, which has not yet been fully reflected in official population statistics due to the classification of some suburban areas as rural. If this trend is recognized, the urbanization rate could rise to 65%.

Key Findings

• A Low-Carbon development strategy in the Bucharest - Ilfov metropolitan region (BIMR) could reduce local greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37% by 2050.
• The Low-Carbon (LC) scenario includes:
  • Dense development and coordinated land use and transit.
  • Proactive local actions to reduce energy consumption in buildings and transport.
  • Changes in solid waste practices.
  • Ambitious national initiatives for clean power and cleaner vehicles.
• Benefits of the LC scenario extend beyond GHG reduction:
  • Air quality improves with a 39% reduction in PM10 and 35% reduction in NOx.
  • Energy spending decreases by $1.4 billion USD/year.
  • Thermal energy savings alone could save $632 million USD/year, mostly in reduced municipal budget expenditures.

Methodology and Findings

The urban sector analysis aimed to provide insights to the Romanian Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests (MEWF) on changing the trajectory of GHG emissions in cities, using BIMR as a case study.

Scenarios

• Business-as-Usual (BAU): Assumes continued low-density development and inefficient urban form. Energy use and emissions increase, but at a slower rate due to some positive trends in transport and buildings.
• Low-Carbon Development (LC): Involves proactive measures to promote smart urban development, including:
  • Increasing high-rise and very high-density residential areas.
  • Reducing vehicle kilometers travelled and promoting mode shifts.
  • Meeting EU targets for recycling and biodegradable waste diversion.
  • Capturing 100% of methane emissions from landfills.

Emission Reductions

• Under the LC scenario, carbon emissions are expected to decline by 37% compared to BAU by 2050.
• Buildings account for the largest share of energy consumption, with heating representing 57% of all building energy use.
• Transport is the second-largest source of GHG emissions, with rising car ownership contributing to congestion.
• Solid waste emissions are significant, largely due to reliance on landfilling, which produces methane, a potent GHG.

Benefits of the Low-Carbon Scenario

• Energy savings in buildings alone could save $956 million USD/year by 2050.
• Thermal energy savings amount to $632 million USD/year, which is likely to benefit the municipal budget.
• Air quality improvements due to reduced emissions from transport and buildings.
• Cost savings from reduced energy spending, contributing to economic efficiency.

Climate Adaptation Considerations

• There is a lack of understanding about how Romanian cities will be affected by climate change.
• Current disaster plans are often local and limited in scope.
• Downscaling global climate models is needed to provide more accurate local climate projections.
• Risk-informed adaptation plans should be developed to guide policy-making and infrastructure investments.
• Building codes should be updated to reflect climate risks, such as floods and earthquakes.
• Public education and green infrastructure investments can help mitigate climate-related hazards.

Conclusion

Adopting a Low-Carbon Development (LC) scenario in Romanian cities, particularly in the BIMR region, offers substantial environmental, economic, and social benefits. It not only reduces GHG emissions but also enhances climate resilience and local air quality. Proactive spatial planning, policy coordination, and infrastructure improvements are essential to achieving these outcomes. Additionally, climate adaptation must be integrated into urban planning to address future climate risks effectively.

Additional Information

• 64 Romanian communities have joined the Covenant of Mayors program, representing 5 million people or 25% of the national population.
• The analysis was co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund through the OPTA 2007-2013 program.
• For more information, visit the OPERA-CLIMA Program webpage: http://opera-clima.ro/en/