2018全球医学趋势报告（英文版）_12页-1mb

2018 Global Medical Trends Survey Report Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Willis Towers Watson Global Medical Trends Pulse Survey highlights a continued rise in medical care costs globally, with most countries experiencing medical inflation significantly higher than general economic inflation. The survey, conducted in 2017, includes responses from 201 leading medical insurers across 60 countries, with weighted data based on GDP to minimize the impact of market size and currency factors.

Key Findings

• Global Medical Inflation:

  • The expected average global medical inflation for 2018 is 7.2%, up from 6.8% in 2017.
  • This rate far exceeds the average general inflation rate of 2.5% in respondent countries.
  • More than half of global health insurers expect the upward trend to be greater or significantly greater over the next three years.

• Regional Highlights:

  • Latin America continues to see the highest medical cost increases, at 11.4% in 2018, driven by Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.
  • Asia Pacific is dominated by rising costs in China, India, Malaysia, and Singapore.
  • Europe experiences relatively lower medical cost increases, but some countries like Bulgaria and Romania show significant growth.
  • Middle East and Africa sees increasing costs in the UAE and South Africa, with the UAE maintaining double-digit growth.

Medical Trends by Country

Asia Pacific

• Australia: Medical inflation is expected to remain stable around 7.1% in 2018.
• China: Gross medical inflation is expected to stay above 10%, driven by increased demand for private care, new medical technologies, and rising labor costs.
• India: Medical cost trend is affected by poor underwriting, delayed treatment, and the use of unnecessary procedures, leading to high inflation rates.
• Malaysia: Experiences the fastest-growing medical costs in the region, with a projected 13.2% in 2018 due to new technologies and medical tourism.
• Singapore: The slower trend appears to be reversing, with rising costs due to chronic diseases and new technologies.
• Taiwan: Medical cost trend is expected to decrease slightly to 9.1% in 2018.
• Thailand: Inflation is projected to be 8.8% in 2018, influenced by new technologies and a growing demand for complex treatments.

Europe

• Belgium: Medical cost trend is expected to increase slightly to 4.6% in 2018.
• Bulgaria: Inflation is expected to rise to 7.0% in 2018, driven by increased healthcare costs.
• Cyprus: Medical cost trend is expected to increase to 4.0% in 2018.
• Czech Republic: Medical cost inflation is projected to be 5.0% in 2018.
• Denmark: Medical inflation is expected to increase to 3.5% in 2018.
• France: The trend rate has decreased from 4% to 2.3% due to government cost control measures.
• Germany: Medical cost inflation is expected to rise to 5.3% in 2018.
• Greece: Medical cost trend is expected to be 2.5% in 2018.
• Ireland: Medical cost trend is expected to increase to 8.0% in 2018.
• Italy: Medical cost trend remains flat due to the government's control over the social security system, but private care demand is rising.
• Netherlands: Medical cost inflation is expected to increase to 4.8% in 2018.
• Norway: Medical cost trend is expected to be 4.5% in 2018.
• Poland: Medical cost trend is projected to increase to 4.0% in 2018.
• Portugal: Medical cost trend is expected to be 2.7% in 2018.
• Romania: Medical cost inflation is expected to be 13.3% in 2018.
• Russia: Medical cost trend is expected to be 8.9% in 2018.
• Serbia: Medical cost inflation is expected to be 15.0% in 2018.
• Spain: Medical cost trend is expected to be 3.1% in 2018.
• Sweden: Medical cost trend is NR (Not Responded) in 2018.
• Turkey: Medical cost trend is expected to be 11.7% in 2018.
• Ukraine: Medical cost trend is expected to be 13.9% in 2018.
• United Kingdom: Medical cost trend is expected to increase to 6.0% in 2018, driven by an aging population and increased use of complex treatments.

Middle East and Africa

• United Arab Emirates: Medical cost trend is expected to be 10.5% in 2018, with some signs of slowing due to new regulations.
• South Africa: Medical cost trend is expected to be 8.8% in 2018, slightly reduced due to lower general inflation linked to the CPI.

The Americas

• Argentina: Medical cost trend is expected to be 27.4% in 2018, but government measures are helping to reduce inflation.
• Brazil: Medical cost trend remains high at 14.4% in 2018 due to reduced market competition and regulatory changes.
• Mexico: Medical cost trend is expected to decrease to 14.4% in 2018 due to lower general inflation.
• Venezuela: Uncontrolled hyperinflation remains a major concern, with severe impacts on medical plans and benefit levels.

Key Factors Influencing Medical Cost Trends

• New Medical Technologies: The adoption of expensive new technologies and equipment is a major driver of cost increases across many countries.
• Government Policies: Regulatory changes and cost control measures are affecting medical cost trends, especially in countries like France and the UAE.
• Private Care Demand: Increased demand for private medical care due to public system inefficiencies and waiting times.
• Lifestyle Diseases: Rising prevalence of chronic diseases and lifestyle disorders contributes to higher medical costs.
• Currency Fluctuations: In countries like Brazil and Venezuela, currency devaluation significantly impacts medical cost trends.
• Market Competition: Reduced competition in the medical insurance market leads to higher cost increases.
• Health Awareness: Low health awareness often results in delayed treatment and more severe conditions, increasing medical costs.
• Preventive Measures: There is a growing emphasis on prevention and wellness initiatives to manage rising costs.

Conclusion

The 2018 survey underscores the persistent challenge of rising medical costs globally, with significant variations across regions. While some countries show signs of slowing trends, others continue to face substantial increases driven by a mix of economic, regulatory, and demographic factors. The report highlights the need for continued monitoring and strategic interventions to manage these trends effectively.