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Goldman Sachs Turkey Banking Sector Update (May 2025)

Key Takeaways & Macroeconomic Outlook:

• Rate Policy & NIM: Expected rate cycle pause in 2Q25; policy rate modelled at ~33% year-end 2025 (vs. 31% previously). NIM recovery delayed by one quarter, broadly unchanged in 2Q25E. TL loan yields rose 4-5pp, deposit yields increased ~5pp since late Mar 25, offsetting each other. Year-end inflation forecast at 32%.
• ROTE Forecast: Delayed NIM recovery impacts projected ROTE. Private banks: 28% in 2025E (down from 35%). State-owned banks: lagging ROE recovery, likely remaining below inflation.

Bank-Specific Ratings & Highlights:

• Akbank (Buy): P/TBV target up to 0.7x/0.5x; NIM stable 2025E, improves to ~5.8% by 2026E; strong capital buffers (+9% CET1 ratio); trades at discount to peers.
• Yapi Kredi (Buy): Price target up to TL50 (from 46); NIM sensitivity to rate cuts high (+4.8% in 2025E); significant ROE upside potential.
• Garanti (Neutral): Price target unchanged; strong YoY ROE start offset by weaker NIM projection; leveraged at 10.9x, highest PB valuation within coverage; Neutral rating.
• Isbank (Neutral): Revised PT up to TL15; lower NIM sensitivity vs peers (due to higher FX exposure). Reiterated Neutral.
• Vakif (Sell): PT revised to TL19; downside risk (c.19%); Company modelled with lower ROE in 2025E vs peer average (negative nominal return vs inflation).
• Halk Bank (Sell): PT unchanged, remains unsung despite higher implied target P/B; moderate ceding capacity, lower NIM but below-market P/B.

Valuation & Sector Trends:

• Banks trade above 5-year median P/E/P/B but discounted vs max level.
• Strong profit growth (Turkey net profit up c. 38% MoM in Mar 2025).
• Elevated leverage (Sector/LDRs reached 10-year peaks).
• Supported loan growth (Total YoY growth ~40% in May 2025), driven by consumer and FX loans.
• TL LDR high at 84%.

Key Risks & Factors:

• Delayed NIM recovery due to interest rate pause.
• Lira depreciation, funding costs, asset quality, regulatory shifts.
• Political uncertainty ahead of local/global elections.
• Inflation expectations impacting ROE.

Summary: 2025 results season impacts estimates and guidance. Key themes: delayed NIM recovery, shift in policy rate expectations, financial stability risks from leverage, and varied bank performance based on asset composition and stability. Buy focus on Akbank/Yapi, Sell on Halk/Vakif. Neutral on Garanti/Isbank.