20160405-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_296kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, including key news, market performance, and upcoming events. It also outlines the current state of residential and commercial property markets across various regions, along with valuation comparisons and analyst ratings.

Key News and Updates

China

• Transaction Volume: Property transaction volume in China fell 5% week-on-week due to tightening policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, but it was still up 85% year-on-year.
• Land Transactions: Land transaction volume and value increased by 36% and 36% week-on-week respectively, while the CMI and CAI indices fell by 3.4% and 4.7% week-on-week.
• Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties: The controlling shareholder of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties is considering a private placement, leading to a 20% stock price surge.
• Land Sales: Land sales in China slowed sharply in 2015, with local government sales down 21.6% year-on-year, although Shenzhen saw a rise of 36.9% year-on-year.
• Shanghai Sales: Sentiment among home buyers in Shanghai surged to an 11-year high in March, with sales of new homes (excluding government-subsidized housing) jumping 184% year-on-year.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: An estimated 338 primary residential units were sold in the 8 days ending April 4, up 89% from the previous week.
• Secondary Market Prices: Secondary market prices fell 0.7% week-on-week as of March 27, with year-to-date prices down 6.2%.
• Retail Sales: February retail sales fell 20.6% year-on-year, marking the worst drop in 17 years.
• Link REIT: Sold two properties by tender for a combined HK$1.69 billion, 27% above the independent appraised value as of March 31, 2016.
• Great Eagle: Proposed to increase its authorized share capital from HK$400 million to HK$600 million, pending shareholder approval at the May 10 AGM.

Singapore

• URA Residential Price Index: Fell 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in 1Q16, with the Core Central region rising 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
• Public Housing Resale Price Index: Fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in 1Q16.

Japan

• Condo Price Index: The Greater Tokyo area saw a 0.14% month-on-month increase in existing condo prices, with Tokyo up 0.25% and Kanagawa and Chiba down by 0.05% and 0.18% respectively.
• Housing Starts: Housing starts in February increased for two consecutive months to 72,831 units, with condo starts in three major cities up 3.9% year-on-year.

Market Performance

Price Performance (Market-cap Weighted)

Top/Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Upcoming Events

Analysts and Contact Information

• Anthony Wu: +852-2978-0634 | anthony.wu@gs.com | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
• Claire Cheng: +852-2978-2488 | claire.cheng@gs.com | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Key Research Highlights

• Mapletree Commercial Trust (MACT.SI): MCT NDR takeaways: Visible organic and acquisition drivers.
• Singapore Real Estate: Home prices edged lower in 1Q; transaction volumes at new lows, unhealthy levels.
• Link REIT: Two of the nine properties put on sale now sold.
• China Property Developers: March/1Q16 sales for major developers up 109%/77% year-on-year.
• China Merchants Holdings: Below expectations, dragged by CIMC and slow volume; M&A upside.

Valuation Comparison

Summary of Supply and Take-Up

Key Takeaways

• The Asia property market has seen mixed performance, with China experiencing a decline in transaction volume and a rise in land transaction volume.
• Hong Kong and Singapore have reported declines in residential prices, while Japan's Tokyo area saw a slight increase in condo prices.
• Major developers in China have reported varying levels of sales performance, with some showing strong growth.
• Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties' potential private placement has significantly impacted its stock price.
• The market is expected to be influenced by upcoming economic indicators and company results.

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.