20240301-宏源期货-甲醇周报_推荐做多PP-3MA价差_11页_2mb

Methanol Market Analysis Summary

Core Views

• Price Rebound: Post-holiday price increase driven by low port inventory (due to weather disruptions and slow Iranian imports, supporting holding prices), increased MTO demand from Zhejiang Xingxing复工, and temporary coal price volatility.
• Sustainability Concerns: Export recovery inland, MTO maintenance (e.g., Nanjing Chongzhi stoppage), and off-season coal demand could limit upside; MA2405 top maintained at 2550.

Recommendations

• Strategy: Long PP-3MA spread (ratio: 2 hands PP to 3 hands MA; current spread at -90, 315th percentile; strategy still holds since Wednesday’s recommendation).

Key Market Metrics

• Basis & Spreads: High华东港口基差 (e.g., Feb 29 at 199元/吨), stable 05-09价差 (~55元/吨).
• Supply Factors: Coal prices rebounded short-term but are expected to decline; supply increases seen in coal-based methanol, but overall supply pressure may ease with maintenance.
• Demand Dynamics: MTO demand peak likely passed as imports slow and profits worsen; traditional demands (acetone, formaldehyde, MTBE) remain muted.
• Inventory & Imports: Port inventory declined post-holiday, but could turn net in March due to supply recovery.

Risks

• Coal price sharp drop or unexpected MTO shutdowns.