20150426-大华银行-UOB-Weekly_FX_Technical_Insights-150427_16页_2mb

Weekly FX Technical Insights Summary (26 April - 01 May 2015)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed outlook on major FX pairs for the week of 26 April to 01 May 2015. It highlights key economic data releases, central bank meetings, and market sentiment that may influence currency movements. The focus is on the US Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting, the Eurozone's inflation and Greece-related developments, and the performance of other major currencies like the British Pound, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and the Singapore Dollar.

Key Events and Outlooks

US Economic Calendar

• 1Q GDP Advance Estimate: Expected to be released, with the broader tone likely noncommittal on rate liftoff timing.
• FOMC Policy Announcement (Wednesday): No forecast update or press conference, leading to market expectations of a non-event.
• March Consumer Spending, Incomes, and Pending Home Sales: Minor data releases that may not significantly impact the market.
• April Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales, and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Gauge: Additional data points that may influence USD trends.
• Corporate Earnings Reports: Continue to be a major focus for market participants.

EUR/USD

• Current Level: 1.0870
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Resistance: 1.0975
• Support Levels: 1.0790, 1.0720
• Analysis: EUR/USD reached a 7-week high last week, with a breakout above 1.0850 indicating potential for further gains. A move above 1.0975 could suggest a retest of the previous peak at 1.1050.

GBP/USD

• Current Level: 1.5185
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Resistance: 1.5310
• Support Levels: 1.5100, 1.5020
• Analysis: GBP/USD surged to a 7-week high, supported by improved interest rate expectations. However, uncertainty around the UK elections may limit gains. A break above 1.5200 could lead to further upward movement.

AUD/USD

• Current Level: 0.7830
• Outlook: Neutral
• Key Resistance: 0.7845, 0.7940
• Support Levels: 0.7780, 0.7710
• Analysis: AUD is in a consolidation phase. A clear break above 0.7845 could trigger a move toward the previous high near 0.7940. A move back below 0.7710 would indicate a shift in momentum.

NZD/USD

• Current Level: 0.7610
• Outlook: Neutral
• Key Resistance: 0.7670, 0.7740
• Support Levels: 0.7570, 0.7510
• Analysis: NZD/USD is in a consolidation phase. A break out of the 0.7510–0.7740 range could lead to a sustained move, but the RBNZ is expected to keep rates on hold.

USD/SGD

• Current Level: 1.3325
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Support: 1.3295, 1.3220
• Resistance Levels: 1.3380, 1.3440
• Analysis: SGD strengthened against USD, with a 1% gain for the week. A break below 1.3295 could trigger further declines to 1.3220. USD/SGD is expected to trade within a narrow range.

USD/MyR

• Current Level: 3.5700
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Support: 3.5500, 3.5380
• Resistance Levels: 3.6080, 3.6270
• Analysis: MYR rose due to improved crude oil prices and BNM Governor Zeti’s comments. A break below 3.5380 would indicate further weakness, with a potential target at 3.5380.

USD/CNY

• Current Level: 6.1975
• Outlook: Neutral
• Key Support: 6.1860, 6.1800
• Resistance Levels: 6.2040, 6.2190
• Analysis: USD/CNH showed minimal movement, with a weekly range of the narrowest since September 2014. A clear break above 6.2040 would signal a stronger recovery.

EUR/SGD

• Current Level: 1.4470
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 1.4410, 1.4350
• Resistance Levels: 1.4565, 1.4640
• Analysis: EUR/SGD is in a consolidation phase, with no indication of a break from the current range.

GBP/SGD

• Current Level: 2.0230
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Resistance: 2.0365
• Support Levels: 2.0140, 2.0100
• Analysis: GBP/SGD shows a bullish outlook, with further gains expected toward 2.0365 unless a break below 2.0100 occurs.

AUD/SGD

• Current Level: 1.0425
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 1.0390, 1.0350
• Resistance Levels: 1.0500, 1.0560
• Analysis: AUD/SGD is in a range-bound phase, with no clear direction expected in the short term.

JPY/SGD

• Current Level: 1.1205
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Support: 1.1140
• Resistance Levels: 1.1250, 1.1280
• Analysis: JPY/SGD fell sharply, with a low of 1.1165. Further weakness is expected, with a potential test of 1.1140 unless a rebound occurs above 1.1250.

Main Points

• The US Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to be noncommittal on rate liftoff timing, with no forecast update or press conference.
• The EUR/USD pair is showing bullish momentum, with resistance at 1.0975.
• GBP/USD is also on a bullish trajectory, supported by improved rate expectations, but faces uncertainty from UK elections.
• The AUD and NZD pairs are in consolidation, with no immediate direction expected.
• SGD has been strengthening against USD, with a bearish outlook for USD/SGD.
• MYR has shown resilience due to improved oil prices and BNM’s stance.
• USD/CNY and USD/CNH remain in a neutral phase, influenced by USD weakness and SDR inclusion expectations.
• JPY/SGD is under bearish pressure, with a likely test of key support at 1.1140.

Key Takeaways

• US Central Bank Outlook: The FOMC meeting is likely to be a non-event, with the markets already pricing in a June rate liftoff.
• Eurozone Focus: Inflation and Greece-related developments will dominate the week, with EUR/USD showing strength.
• GBP Performance: GBP/USD is in an uptrend, supported by rate expectations, but political uncertainty may temper gains.
• SGD Trends: SGD is strengthening against USD, with a bearish outlook for USD/SGD.
• AUD and NZD: Both pairs are in consolidation, suggesting no immediate trend reversal.
• RMB and CNH: The RMB and CNH are supported by weak USD and SDR inclusion expectations, with a neutral outlook.
• JPY Weakness: JPY/SGD is expected to continue its downward trend, testing support at 1.1140.

Conclusion

The week ahead is marked by a mix of economic data and central bank events, with the US FOMC meeting and Eurozone developments being the key drivers. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are viewed as bullish, while USD/SGD and USD/MyR show bearish tendencies. AUD and NZD remain in a neutral consolidation phase. The RMB and CNH are supported by USD weakness and SDR expectations, and JPY is expected to continue its bearish trend. Overall, the market is in a period of uncertainty, with technical levels playing a critical role in determining short-term movements.