世界经济论坛-2024年增长前景报告（英）-2024.1-291页_5mb

The Future of Growth Report 2024 Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Forum's Future of Growth Report 2024 provides a comprehensive analysis of global economic growth trends and introduces a new multidimensional framework to evaluate the quality and alignment of growth with broader national and global priorities. The report emphasizes that traditional GDP metrics are insufficient to capture the full picture of growth and highlights the need for a more holistic and balanced approach.

Main Points

• Global Growth Slowdown: Economic growth has slowed significantly since the early 2000s, with post-COVID growth rates averaging below 4% across all income groups.
• Crises Impact: A series of global crises, including the financial crisis, pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, have exacerbated the slowdown and created new challenges for growth.
• Climate Concerns: The world is on track for a temperature rise significantly above the Paris Agreement targets, posing long-term risks to human development.
• Need for Balanced Growth: The focus is shifting from quantity to quality of growth. The report argues that the future of growth must align with innovation, inclusion, sustainability, and resilience.
• Framework Introduction: The Future of Growth Framework is introduced as a tool to evaluate growth in terms of its character, quality, and alignment with these four pillars rather than aggregating them into a single index.

Key Pillars of the Framework

1. Innovativeness

• Measures an economy's ability to absorb and evolve with new technological, social, and institutional developments.
• Global Average: 45.2 out of 100.
• Income Group Differences: High-income economies score significantly higher (59.4) than low-income (26.8) and upper-middle income (39.3) economies.
• Talent and Resources Ecosystems: Talent availability, education, digital and technology talent, and access to ICT capital are critical for innovation.
• Financial and Technology Ecosystems: Access to long-term finance, digital payments, and R&D investment are important indicators.

2. Inclusiveness

• Evaluates how growth benefits all stakeholders, including access to basic services, social protection, and opportunities for all.
• Global Average: 55.9 out of 100.
• Income Group Differences: High-income economies score the highest (68.9), followed by upper-middle (54.8) and lower-middle (44.8) income economies.
• Key Indicators: Universal health coverage, social mobility, gender parity, and access to transport and housing are crucial for inclusive growth.

3. Sustainability

• Assesses whether an economy's growth keeps its ecological footprint within environmental limits.
• Global Average: 46.8 out of 100.
• Income Group Differences: Low and lower-middle income economies score higher (52.7 and 50.0) than high-income (45.8) and upper-middle income (44.0) economies.
• Key Indicators: Renewable energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and environmental regulations are central to sustainability.

4. Resilience

• Focuses on the ability of an economy to withstand and recover from shocks.
• Global Average: 52.8 out of 100.
• Income Group Differences: High-income economies show the strongest resilience (61.9), while low-income economies have the weakest (39.0).
• Key Indicators: Financial system resilience, cybersecurity, and access to healthcare and education are essential for resilience.

Growth Pathway Archetypes

• The report identifies seven distinct growth pathway archetypes, reflecting different patterns of performance across the four pillars.
• High-income economies are characterized by strong inclusiveness, innovativeness, and resilience, but lag in sustainability.
• Upper-middle income economies emphasize inclusiveness and resilience but need to improve on sustainability and innovativeness.
• Lower-middle income economies focus on resilience and sustainability but struggle with inclusiveness and innovativeness.
• Low-income economies have a high sustainability score due to lower environmental footprints but need to improve on resilience, inclusiveness, and innovativeness.

Country Dashboards

• Each of the 107 economies covered in the report has a Future of Growth Dashboard.
• These dashboards provide GDP-derived statistics and framework data to help policymakers, academics, and business leaders understand the balance between growth and other priorities.
• The dashboards also highlight trade-offs and synergies across the four pillars, offering insights for policy development.

Policy Implications

• The framework is non-prescriptive, allowing countries to explore how to balance the four pillars based on their unique circumstances.
• It encourages collaboration between policymakers, business leaders, and academics to develop new, sustainable growth pathways.
• The Future of Growth Initiative is a two-year campaign aimed at fostering such collaboration and shaping the future of growth in alignment with innovation, inclusion, sustainability, and resilience.

Methodology

• The framework is built on four pillars and uses a multidimensional approach.
• It incorporates indicator selection, normalization, and aggregation methods to ensure a comprehensive assessment.
• Clustering is used to identify growth pathway archetypes based on similar performance patterns.

Conclusion

• Global growth is slower and less aligned with long-term priorities.
• The Future of Growth Framework provides a holistic and balanced approach to evaluating growth quality.
• The report serves as a call to action for leaders to reassess and recalibrate growth models for a new economic era.

Key Takeaways

• GDP alone is not enough to understand the quality of growth.
• The four pillars—Innovativeness, Inclusiveness, Sustainability, and Resilience—form the foundation of the framework.
• Country-specific analysis is crucial to developing effective growth strategies.
• Collaboration and policy alignment are necessary to address the complex challenges of the future.

References

• The report draws on the Global Competitiveness Index and extensive consultations with stakeholders.
• It is part of the World Economic Forum's Future of Growth Initiative, which aims to inspire new growth pathways.