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Americas Asset Managers Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for Alternative Asset Managers (Alts) in the Americas, focusing on stock price movements, fundraising trends, management fee growth, and valuation metrics. It highlights the overall rebound of Alts stocks from April lows and the current valuation environment, while also identifying key drivers and risks for the sector.

Key Trends and Drivers

Stock Performance and Valuation

• Alternative Managers stocks have largely recovered from their post-"Liberation Day" losses, rising 34% from their April trough on average.
• Valuation levels have returned to near historical highs, with an average 31X NTM P/E or 25X 2026 P/E, both 30% above historical averages.
• Despite the rebound, the group remains selective in stock price performance due to macro uncertainty.
• KKR, TPG, and CG are highlighted as having the most upside potential from current levels.

Management Fee Growth

• The group's organic management fee growth is expected to accelerate from 9% in 2024 to a 14% CAGR from 2024-2026.
• Retail and Wealth Management are significant contributors, with Retail and affiliated Insurance partnerships accounting for 24% and 21% of the 11% y/y organic management fee growth in 1Q25.
• Private Credit remains the largest driver of inflows, accounting for 57% of gross inflows in 1Q25.
• Secondaries and Infrastructure are also seen as positive contributors to fee growth.

Fundraising

• 1Q25 fundraising totaled $211bn (excluding M&A and affiliated insurance inflows), consistent with the previous quarter.
• Private Credit continues to be the main driver, with $120bn in inflows.
• Institutional fundraising has become more barbelled, with more capital coming in at the initial close and end, and less during interim periods.
• Wealth Management is a key differentiator and growth area, with semi-liquid products generating ~950mn in revenue, up 37% YoY.

Risks and Concerns

• There is a risk of cannibalization of institutional returns due to the rapid growth in the retail channel, as excess returns in private markets are not infinite.
• Private Equity is seen as the most challenged segment, with increasing share gains toward firms with stronger DPI (Distribution and Performance Income) and IRR (Internal Rate of Return).
• Monetization activity is expected to slow in the near term, with 2Q and 3Q PRE likely to be below 1Q levels.
• Consensus estimates for gross realization revenues (carry) in 2025 and 2026 are considered too optimistic, with a ~10% downside expected for 2025-2027.

Expense and Margins

• Expense growth remains elevated due to continued investment in retail distribution, product development, and geographic expansion.
• Reported FRE (Fee-paying AUM) margins were 53% in 1Q25, consistent with prior quarters.
• However, when adjusted for stock-based compensation and performance-related compensation, the group's fully-loaded pre-tax margins were 36%, down 90bps YoY.
• Equity-Based Compensation (EBC) utilization continues to rise, now accounting for 29% of FRE compensation, up 27% YoY.

Key Themes

Upside Potential

• KKR, TPG, and CG are identified as having the most potential for absolute upside.
• Retail and Wealth Management are expected to drive significant fee growth, with 24% of the group's y/y organic fee growth coming from these areas.

Valuation Metrics

• Alts stocks are trading at a 30% premium to their 3-year average NTM P/DE.
• The implied FRE multiple for the group is ~29.9X for 2026, with BX and HLNE at the higher end and APO and CG at the lower end.
• The FRE PEG (Price-to-Earnings Growth) is 1.9X, indicating a moderate valuation multiple relative to growth expectations.

SOTP Valuation

• The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation methodology is applied, showing varying upside and multiples across firms.
• APO, ARES, BAM, BX, CG, KKR, and HLNE have different price targets and implied multiples, with APO and CG showing the highest upside potential.

Summary Table

Company	Target Price	% Upside	Implied FRE Multiple	2025E FRE/share	2026E FRE/share	2027E FRE/share
APO	$150.00	4.3%	32.7X	$2.75	$3.40	$3.20
ARES	$179.00	5.2%	40.0X	$2.60	$4.22	$5.50
BAM	$60.00	0.5%	29.5X	$1.86	$3.38	$5.28
BX	$140.00	-4.6%	38.0X	$5.01	$12.46	$13.25
CG	$51.75	9.1%	30.6X	$6.50	$11.98	$10.50
HLNE	$136.00	-21.3%	34.2X	$7.44	$12.46	$13.25
KKR	$142.00	12.8%	31.0X	$6.75	$10.30	$10.50
OWL	$20.75	6.5%	26.0X	$1.66	$2.43	$2.87
TPG	$58.00	11.7%	26.0X	$1.92	$2.50	$2.12
STEP	$57.50	-3.4%	32.0X	$2.32	$2.87	$3.20
Alts Average	-	30%	-	-	-	-

Key Figures

• 1Q25 inflows (excluding M&A and affiliated insurance): $159bn
• FPAUM (Fee-paying AUM) increased 4% q/q or 3% y/y
• Retail management fees represent 9% of base management fees and 24% of y/y organic management fee growth
• Private Credit accounted for $120bn of inflows or 57% of aggregate inflows
• Insurance-affiliated inflows accounted for 25% of 1Q25 inflows
• Consensus estimates for 2025-2027 FRE CAGR are ~16%, with some firms showing modest upside vs. consensus

Conclusion

The Alternative Asset Managers sector in the Americas is showing resilience and growth, particularly in the retail and wealth management channels. While valuation levels are near historical highs, the group remains selective on stock price performance. KKR, TPG, and CG are highlighted as having the most upside potential. Fundraising remains strong, but Private Equity is expected to face challenges due to elongated fundraising cycles and reduced monetization activity. The FRE (Fee-paying AUM) growth is expected to accelerate, with management fees growing at a 14% CAGR through 2026. However, fully-loaded pre-tax margins are expected to remain under pressure due to rising EBC (Equity-Based Compensation) utilization.