20170118-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_13页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

CMS(HK) Research Summary

Core Content

This document outlines key research highlights from CMS Research Center, focusing on the performance and outlook of several stocks, along with broader market trends and investment strategies.

Key Stock Highlights

Datang Environment (1272 HK)

Current Price: HK$3.15
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$4.2
Key Points:
- Strong support from Datang Group enhances its capacity growth.
- A leading one-stop solution provider in the environmental protection industry.
- Estimated net profit growth of 27% CAGR from FY15 to FY18E.
- Expected revenue growth of 16% CAGR and shareholder profit growth of 28% CAGR.
- The company is a major beneficiary of the fast-growing environmental protection market.
- The TP is based on a 3-stage DCF model, representing a 17E P/E of 8.6x.
- The current valuation is considered undervalued compared to coal-fired power companies.

Li Ning (2331 HK)

Current Price: HK$4.94
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$6.47
Key Points:
- TPG is seeking to sell 114 million shares at HK$4.73-4.80, which is 3-4% below the current price.
- TPG also holds 169 million shares from convertible bonds, which will expire on 7 Feb 2017 at HK$4.092.
- The total diluted shareholding is 12%, which will drop to 7% after the sale.
- The research team recommends buying on any weakness, including the CB conversion impact.

A-share Market Outlook

Investment Strategies

2017 Investment Strategy: Balanced allocation with a moderately optimistic outlook.
Market Stability: The market has been fluctuating within a tighter range due to the implementation of the "circuit-breaker" mechanism in 2016.
Performance: Despite market fluctuations, some mutual funds have achieved good returns.
Economic Outlook: China's economy is expected to stabilize and improve corporate earnings, leading to a positive impact on the market.
Macroeconomic View: A transitional bull market in spiral movement, with a core view of "Surfing and maneuvers".
Bond Market: A steady and slow bullish trend is expected to continue into 2017, with decreasing yields and increasing market valuation.

Market Data Overview

Stock Market Indices

Hang Seng Index: Close at 22841, +0.54%
Hang Seng Finance Index: Close at 31063, +0.56%
Hang Seng Utilities Index: Close at 52793, +0.21%
Hang Seng Property Index: Close at 31173, +0.6%
Hang Seng Industrial Index: Close at 13435, +0.54%
HSCEI: Close at 9702, +0.37%
CSI 300: Close at 3326, +0.21%
Shanghai Composite Index: Close at 3109, +0.17%
TWSE: Close at 9355, +0.67%

Global Market Data

Brent Oil: 55.45, -0.41%
COMEX Gold: 1215.4, +1.61%
COMEX Copper: 261.65, -2.73%
LME Aluminum: 1798.0, +0.33%
LME Copper: 5776.5, -1.51%
BDI: 922.0, -0.32%

Exchange Rates

USD/RMB: 6.85, -0.72%
USD/HKD: 7.76, +0.01%
EUR/USD: 1.07, +1.0%
1Y RMB NDF: 7.08, -1.25%
3M Libor: 1.02, +0.05%
3M Shibor: 3.72, +0.55%
10Y US T-Note Yield: 2.4, +1.69%

Research Coverage List (As of January 18, 2017)

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price	TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E	Analyst
Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$11.24	HK$13.0	12.6	7,317	0.69	0.72	0.89	7.3	8.6	8.6	Alex NG
China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.39	HK$3.5	6.6	681	0.29	0.39	0.46	10.7	11.1	11.1	Alex NG
Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$8.62	HK$13.0	26.5	9,824	0.26	0.53	0.83	10.6	13.1	13.1	Alex NG
BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.82	HK$7.3	12.4	6,605	0.44	0.71	0.86	15.7	12.4	12.4	Alex NG
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$8.05	HK$11.0	7.3	9,478	0.88	1.06	1.19	20.7	18.1	18.1	Alex NG
Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$23.25	HK$26.0	17.1	7,524	1.09	1.22	1.42	22.9	15.4	15.4	Alex NG
China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$2.97	HK$6.2	6.1	604	0.39	0.42	0.50	13.0	5.7	5.7	Alex NG
Minth Group	425 HK	BUY	HK$24.85	HK$33.0	17.5	3,540	1.14	1.50	1.87	17.5	13.4	13.4	Alex NG
Datang Environment	1272 HK	BUY	HK$3.15	HK$4.2	100%	12	0.27	0.32	0.36	10.0	10.0	10.0	Nelson Lee
Li Ning	2331 HK	BUY	HK$4.94	HK$6.47	31%	874	-0.02	0.11	0.25	N.A.	36.3	19.8	Eugene MAK
China Mengniu Dairy	2319 HK	BUY	HK$14.36	HK$16.0	11%	7,267	0.61	0.64	0.72	18.8	18.1	13.5	Gloria WANG
Xinjiang Goldwind	2208 HK	BUY	HK$12.78	HK$13.0	2%	4,436	1.13	1.20	1.30	9.1	8.6	8.7	Nelson Lee
GCL-Poly Energy	3800 HK	BUY	HK$0.96	HK$1.59	66%	1,918	0.12	0.14	0.15	8.0	6.9	6.4	Nelson Lee
Huadian Fuxin Energy	816 HK	BUY	HK$1.68	HK$2.1	25%	464	0.22	0.28	0.30	6.1	4.8	4.5	Nelson Lee
Huaneng Renewables	958 HK	BUY	HK$2.57	HK$3.1	21%	3,225	0.19	0.26	0.34	10.8	8.0	7.6	Nelson Lee
Xinyi Solar	968 HK	BUY	HK$2.62	HK$4.3	64%	2,281	0.19	0.27	0.38	13.8	9.7	7.9	Nelson Lee

Summary of Key Trends and Insights

Environmental Protection Industry: Expected to boom due to stricter emission standards and the adoption of the "Ultra-low emission" policy.
Concession Operation: Trending towards outsourcing environmental management to experienced third parties.
Engineering Services Demand: Likely to increase with the upgrading and refurbishment of environmental facilities.
Datang Environment: Strong growth potential due to its position as a market leader with first-mover advantage.
Li Ning: TPG's share sale may lead to short-term weakness, but the research team maintains a BUY rating.
A-share Market: A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for 2017, with a moderately optimistic outlook.
Economic Outlook: Stabilization of the economy and improved corporate earnings are expected to benefit the market.
Bond Market: A steady and slow bullish trend is anticipated, with decreasing yields and increasing valuation.
Valuation: The TP for Datang Environment is considered conservative within the expected range of valuations for the industry.