2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jordan_Selected_Issues_63页_1mb

Jordan: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis (SRC) and regional conflicts on Jordan, as well as a balance sheet analysis of the Jordanian economy, financial inclusion, gender equity, and payroll tax reforms.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis and Regional Conflicts

• Output: The SRC has negatively impacted Jordan's growth, with real GDP growth losses averaging 1% per year since mid-2012. The cumulative impact on GDP is estimated at 18% of annual GDP.
• Trade Disruption: The war in Syria disrupted trade routes, particularly with Iraq, Lebanon, Europe, Turkey, and Central Asia, leading to a significant decline in exports.
• Unemployment and Labor Markets: The influx of Syrian refugees increased unemployment, especially in governorates hosting the majority of refugees (Amman, Mafraq, Irbid, Zarqa). The labor supply from refugees also reduced the share of self-employed in the economically active population.
• Inflation: Non-tradable prices (e.g., rental prices) increased at a decreasing rate, while tradable prices remained largely unaffected. Food prices remained correlated with international prices.
• Balance of Payments: The SRC worsened the non-oil current account deficit, which rose from about 14% of GDP in 2011 to 19% in 2016. Lower oil prices provided some relief, but the current account remains vulnerable to oil price shocks.
• Fiscal Costs: The SRC increased direct fiscal costs by over 1% of GDP annually since 2013, with security being the largest component. Indirect costs, such as those related to public service quality, could raise the total fiscal burden to 3.5% of GDP.

2. Balance Sheet Analysis

• External Liabilities: Jordan's net external position worsened from -70% of GDP in 2010 to -97% in 2016. Liabilities to the rest of the world reached 165% of GDP, far exceeding its claims (68% of GDP).
• Public Sector: The public sector is the largest debtor, with public debt rising from 67% to 95% of GDP. The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has rebuilt its gross usable reserves, increasing from 66% to 122% of GDP, while gradually reducing its financing of the public sector.
• Banking Sector: Commercial banks are the most significant financial actors, with total assets reaching 176% of GDP. They are a major source of funding for both public and private sectors.
• Non-Banking Financial Sector: The Social Security Investment Fund (SSIF) has become a more significant player in financing the economy, with domestic assets rising from JD 6.1 billion in 2013 to JD 7.6 billion in 2015.
• Non-Financial Private Sector: This sector remains the main provider of bank deposits and a major debtor to the banking system, with external debt remaining below 10% of GDP.

3. Financial Inclusion in Jordan

• Development: Financial inclusion in Jordan has been growing, with the Financial Inclusion Index (FII) showing progress compared to the world average.
• Sub-Indices: Jordan's FII is influenced by factors such as access to banking services, credit availability, and digital financial services.
• Policy Recommendations: The government should continue to promote financial inclusion through targeted initiatives, such as expanding access to banking services and improving digital infrastructure.

4. Macroeconomic Gains from Gender Equity

• Background: Jordan has been working to improve gender equity in the labor market, which is crucial for economic development.
• International Evidence: Female labor force participation (FLFP) is influenced by factors such as education, employment opportunities, and legal frameworks.
• Policy Recommendations: Jordan should enhance FLFP through policy reforms, including improving access to education and employment for women, and strengthening legal protections.

5. Energy and Water Sector Reforms

• Recent Reforms: Jordan has implemented reforms in the energy and water sectors to improve efficiency and sustainability.
• Energy Sector: Reforms have included the introduction of market mechanisms and the promotion of private investment.
• Water Sector: Challenges remain due to the country's water scarcity and the need for significant capital expenditures to meet growing demand.

6. Payroll Taxes and Employment

• Challenges: Payroll taxes are a significant barrier to employment, especially in the informal sector.
• Theoretical Impact: Payroll tax cuts could increase formal employment by reducing the cost of hiring and increasing the incentive for employers to formalize.
• International Experience: Other countries have shown that payroll tax cuts can lead to increased employment and reduced informality.
• Key Lessons for Jordan: Payroll tax cuts should be accompanied by other reforms to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability.

Key Information

• Syrian Refugee Crisis: Has been a major factor in Jordan's economic challenges, including reduced growth, increased unemployment, and a deteriorating balance of payments.
• Fiscal Costs: Direct and indirect fiscal costs of the SRC are estimated at around 1–3.5% of GDP annually.
• Balance of Payments: Non-oil current account deficit has widened significantly, reaching 3% of GDP in 2016.
• External Liabilities: Jordan's net external position has worsened over the past decade, with liabilities to the rest of the world exceeding claims.
• Financial Inclusion: Jordan's FII is improving, but there is still room for growth.
• Gender Equity: Enhancing FLFP is crucial for economic development and should be supported through targeted policies.
• Energy and Water Reforms: Necessary to address sustainability and efficiency challenges.
• Payroll Taxes: Reductions could help formalize the labor market and reduce informality.

Conclusion

The Syrian Refugee Crisis and regional conflicts have had a significant and long-term impact on Jordan's economy, affecting output, labor markets, inflation, and the balance of payments. The country faces substantial fiscal and external vulnerabilities, which require structural reforms to ensure long-term economic stability. Financial inclusion, gender equity, and sectoral reforms are essential for enhancing resilience and promoting sustainable growth.