2025-06-16-Jefferies-中国冲击2.0与能源转型_75页_2mb

China Shock 2.0 & The Energy Transition Summary

Introduction

The report explores "China Shock 2.0" in the energy transition context, highlighting China's role in global clean technology (clean-tech) production, overcapacity issues, and policy impacts.

China's Dominance in Clean Tech Manufacturing

• China controls at least 70% of global clean-tech manufacturing capacity across sectors like solar cells, batteries, and wind turbines, with investments comprising 76% of global clean-tech facility investments in 2024.
• This dominance persists despite diversification efforts, driven by economies of scale and manufacturing expertise.

Overcapacity and Price Deflation

• Global clean-tech production outpaces demand, leading to price declines:
  • Solar module prices fell 67% year-over-year.
  • Lithium-ion battery prices dropped 31%, and wind turbine prices decreased 21%.
• Overcapacity is expected to last at least 2-3 years, squeezing industry margins, with EBITDA shrinking for solar manufacturers.

Global Trade and Export Trends

• Clean-tech exports from China to emerging markets (EM) rose to 43% in 2024, driven by low prices and overcapacity, despite recent trade barriers.
• Key markets include Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Mexico, with exports in solar modules, EVs, and batteries increasing significantly.

Policy Developments and Tariffs

• Rising tariffs globally, especially from the US, China, and EU, are creating uncertainty:
  • US and EU tariffs on clean-tech imports, including batteries, are escalating, potentially reducing clean-tech build forecasts in the US by up to 10% in some scenarios.
  • The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) promotes US localization but introduces policy risks for imports, with China-linked firms accounting for 11% of planned US battery production.
• Trade tensions involve reciprocal tariffs, adding costs for energy storage systems addressed in the US.

Energy Storage and Supply Chain Shifts

• Battery supply chains are evolving, with China as the lowest-cost producer but facing US policy-driven cost increases due to tariffs.
• US energy storage build-out by 2035 could be impacted by tariff scenarios, reducing capacity additions under risk-adjusted conditions.
• Global efforts to localize supply chains, however, are limited, with most battery manufacturing commissioned in East Asia, not Europe as initially expected.

Conclusion

The China Shock 2.0 underscores the risks of overcapacity, trade tensions, and policy uncertainty to the global energy transition, while highlighting opportunities and challenges for clean tech markets worldwide.