2025-05-26-Jefferies-ALS（ALQ）_建造它并希望它们到来；给予持有评级_13页_955kb

Company: ALS Limited (ALQ AU), a major testing and inspection company with segments in Life Sciences, Commodities, and Corporate.

Rating & Price Target: Jefferies maintains a HOLD rating with a price target of AUD18.20, down from AUD17.64 due to dilution risks from capital raise and delayed lab expansion benefits.

Performance: FY25 results were in-line; revenue AUD1,910m, EBITDA AUD418m (+2% beat). FY26 guidance calls for 5-7% revenue growth with moderate margin expansion.

Segments: Life Sciences outperformed with EBITDA growth driven by share gains and regulations. Commodities saw stable results, but minerals margins face pressure from lower-priced contracts.

Capital Raise: A AUD350m placement and AUD40m share plan were unexpected, funding lab expansions but potentially diluting EPS.

Valuation: Blended DCF and EV/EBIT models value ALS at AUD18.20, reflecting risks like competitive pricing, regulatory hurdles (e.g., Mexico pharma legislation), and high fixed costs.

Outlook: Positives include recovery in sample volumes and support from commodity price rises. Upside scenarios depend on LS growth and minerals upcycle, while risks involve execution and equity dilution.

Risks: Volatility in mineral exploration, economic uncertainty, competitive margins, and dilution from raise.