国际可持续发展研究所-逐步减少还是逐步增加？尽管气候承诺，顶级化石燃料生产商仍计划进行更多开采（英）-2023-126页_10mb

2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing Down or Phasing Up?

Introduction

This report examines the discrepancy between government plans for fossil fuel production and global pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Since the 2019 report, governments continue planning fossil fuel production despite climate promises.

Overview of the Global Production Gap

• Aggregate Gap: Governments plan fossil fuel production approximately 110% higher in 2030 than the 1.5°C-consistent level, and 69% higher for 2°C-consistent.
• Coal: Production will increase until 2030 (460% higher in 2030 than 1.5°C-consistent).
• Oil & Gas: Production will increase through 2050 (at least 29% higher in 2030).
• Country Level: 10 high-income countries alone exceed global 1.5°C-consistent pathways for each fuel by 2040.

Detailed Findings

Key Messages

1. Governments must aim for a near-total phase-out of global coal production by 2040 and reduce oil/gas production by three-quarters by 2050.
2. Production gap undermines energy transition and climate goals, requiring stronger transparency and reduction targets.
3. Realistic deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is uncertain, making faster fossil fuel phase-out essential.

Policy Implications

• Governments should adopt near- and long-term fossil fuel reduction targets.
• Enhance transparency by reporting consistent plans and reductions.
• Combine fossil fuel phase-out with expansion of renewable energy.
• Establish equitable “just transition” policies for affected workers.

Reason for Urgency

• The burning of existing fossil fuels would already exceed the 1.5°C carbon budget.
• Non-climatic harms (pollution, human rights violations) of fossil extraction demand faster transition.

Government Plans & Policies

Seventeen countries pledged net-zero by mid-century, but plans show continued production increases. Four countries have drafted Paris-aligned scenarios, but implementation remains the issue.

Recommendations

Countries should set concrete reduction targets, phase out fossil fuel production as soon as possible, and ensure just transitions for affected communities.