DNV-风力发电：商业化的动力（英）-2021-19页_12mb

报告摘要

Summary of "FLOATING WIND: THE POWER TO COMMERCIALIZE"

Core Content

Floating wind is an emerging renewable energy technology that has the potential to significantly contribute to the global energy transition. Unlike fixed offshore wind, which is limited to shallow waters, floating wind can be deployed in deep waters, opening up new opportunities for electricity generation in regions with limited onshore or fixed offshore wind potential. This makes it especially relevant for coastal zones with large populations and narrow continental shelves, such as parts of Asia and the Pacific.

The report outlines that floating wind is expected to grow rapidly, reaching a total capacity of 250 GW by 2050, which would represent more than 20% of the offshore wind market and around 2% of the world's power supply. This growth is driven by the need to decarbonize energy systems and meet global climate goals, particularly the 1.5°C target under the Paris Agreement.

Main Views

Floating wind is technically feasible and has already demonstrated success with pilot projects such as Hywind Scotland and WindFloat Atlantic.
The cost of floating wind is projected to decrease by nearly 70% by 2050, reaching an average of 40 EUR per MWh, driven by larger turbines, economies of scale, and a more specialized supply chain.
Risk management is critical for building investor confidence and enabling healthy investment. Floating wind presents unique challenges due to its complexity, new technologies, and diverse supply chain.
Certification and standards play a vital role in ensuring quality, reliability, and cost efficiency. DNV GL has been at the forefront of developing these standards, including the DNVGL-RU-OU-0512 class rules, which integrate offshore, energy, maritime, and digital expertise.
Digital innovation is essential for the rapid, low-cost scaling of floating wind. Advanced software tools, cloud computing, and data integration are needed to model, design, and manage floating wind structures effectively.
Standardized solutions are necessary for shipyards and offshore contractors to achieve cost-effective construction and project delivery, especially as floating wind projects grow in scale and complexity.

Key Information

Market Developments

France: Has supported floating wind through pilot site tenders, with a focus on three 250 MW projects from 2021 to 2023.
Norway: Leads in floating wind with the Hywind Tampen project (88 MW) and has opened up new areas for offshore wind development.
UK: Supports floating wind through the ScotWind Leasing programme and the UK Offshore Wind Sector Deal, promoting innovation and development.
US: Has identified the Pacific Coast and Gulf of Maine as potential markets, with California possibly launching auctions by late 2021.
Japan: Has introduced the Offshore Wind Promotion Law, facilitating open tenders and auctions for floating wind projects.
South Korea: Has five major companies, including Equinor, involved in floating wind, with Ulsan as the central hub for the industry.

Cost and Efficiency

Floating wind is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) that falls by more than two-thirds by 2050, making it a massive global market.
Cost reductions will come from larger turbines, more efficient supply chains, and technology advancements.
Standardized solutions and modular construction are key to enabling cost-effective and scalable floating wind projects.

Risk and Confidence

Floating wind involves more components and interfaces than fixed offshore wind, increasing the complexity and risk.
Certification and classification are essential to manage risk and build stakeholder confidence.
Flexible permitting and regulatory frameworks are necessary to support innovation and adapt to evolving market conditions.

Digital Innovation

The complexity of floating wind requires advanced digital tools for analysis, design, and control.
Cloud computing and machine learning can enhance analysis efficiency and reduce engineering hours.
Integrated digital solutions are necessary for optimizing design, minimizing steel use, and improving manufacturing processes.

Industry Collaboration

Cross-industry collaboration between offshore wind, oil and gas, and shipyards is crucial for the development and commercialization of floating wind.
Shared expertise and standardized practices can drive innovation and reduce costs.
Joint industry projects can help establish new practices and standards, accelerating the industry's growth.

Future Outlook

Floating wind is expected to achieve the same LCOE reductions as fixed offshore wind and onshore wind.
Digital tools will support operation and maintenance, grid integration, and lifecycle management.
Investors and financiers need to be prepared for early-stage risks, but the long-term potential returns are promising.

Conclusion

Floating wind is a promising technology that can accelerate the energy transition and contribute significantly to global decarbonization. It has the potential to generate 2% of the world's power supply by 2050, with 70% cost reductions. The growth of floating wind will depend on certification, digital innovation, and standardized solutions, as well as cross-industry collaboration and flexible regulatory frameworks. With continued investment and innovation, floating wind can become a cost-competitive and scalable energy source, offering attractive returns for investors and sustainable development for the planet.