Ctia-需要多少许可频谱才能满足未来对净工作容量的需求？（英）-2023.4-37页_1mb

Spectrum Deficit Analysis Summary

Background

The report addresses the growing demand for mobile network capacity due to exploding data traffic, driven by 5G adoption and potential 6G applications. It highlights that the U.S. spectrum landscape is stalled, with insufficient new spectrum allocations planned, risking capacity constraints.

Key Findings

• Mobile data traffic is projected to increase significantly: over 250% in 5 years (to ~5.8 exabytes/month) and by 500% in 10 years (to ~17 exabytes/month).
• Without new spectrum, the U.S. will face a spectrum deficit of ~400 MHz by 2027, tripling to over 1,400 MHz by 2032, normalized to lower mid-band equivalent.
• Non-spectrum solutions (e.g., spectral efficiency improvements and infrastructure deployment) are insufficient even under optimistic scenarios due to technological limits and natural constraints.
• Spectrum availability is identified as the primary factor to alleviate capacity constraints.

Analysis Methodology

The report uses historical data, traffic projections, regression analysis, and supply-side factors (including spectral efficiency, cell site deployment, and spectrum inventory) to estimate deficits. Sensitivity analyses show that demand shocks or supply variations do not negate the necessity for additional spectrum.

Conclusion

Additional full-power, licensed spectrum allocations are essential to meet future demand. Policymakers should prioritize spectrum repurposing to avoid capacity deficits, which could limit U.S. leadership in wireless technology and negatively impact services like fixed wireless access and consumer experiences.