20150716-Maybank_KERPL-Power_Impulse_-_Utilities___renewables_weekly_14页_647kb
报告摘要
Power Impulse - Utilities & Renewables Weekly Summary
Core Content
This report provides an overview of the performance of various sectors within the power and renewable energy industry in China and highlights key market developments and trends.
Key Highlights
- Solar was the best performing sector, with a 29% increase in stock price performance (5D).
- HK utilities saw a 4.5% increase in stock price performance (5D).
- Spot polysilicon price increased by 0.1% WoW to USD15.48/kg.
- Spot solar wafer price increased by 0.1% WoW to USD0.807/piece.
- Qinhuangdao spot coal price decreased by 0.5% WoW to CNY398/tonne.
Market News
- Around 10 provinces in China are planning inland nuclear power projects, which could be included in the 13th five-year plan.
- China and Kenya are set to co-develop a 50MW solar farm in the northeastern part of Kenya, potentially one of the largest solar projects in Africa.
- This cooperation could benefit Chinese manufacturers by increasing solar component demand and allowing export of solar technology.
Key Data Points
| Data Item | Date | Output/Price | WoW/MoM (%) | YoY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total power generation | Jun | 474,500 GWh | +4.0% MoM | +0.5% |
| Wind power generation | May | 18,900 GWh | +1.1% MoM | +9.8% |
| Thermal power generation | Jun | 336,300 GWh | -2.4% MoM | -5.8% |
| Hydro power generation | Jun | 102,800 GWh | +34.0% MoM | +16.4% |
| Coal spot price (CNY) | 13 Jul | 398/tonne | -0.5% WoW | -23.2% |
| Coal inventory (day) | 20 Jun | 21 days | +1 day* | -1 day |
*Note: * compared to 10 days ago. Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CEIC, PVInsights, Maybank KE
Stock Price Performance
| Sector | 1D% | 5D% | 1M% | 3M% | 6M% | YTD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China IPPs | -1.2% | +12.4% | -8.5% | -0.5% | +1.9% | +5.9% |
| Nuclear | -3.3% | +12.9% | -21.3% | -15.0% | +9.4% | +3.9% |
| Gas distributors | -0.8% | +8.9% | -4.2% | -11.0% | +2.4% | -1.0% |
| HK utilities | -0.2% | +4.5% | +0.9% | -5.0% | -1.4% | +0.9% |
| Solar | -3.6% | +29.2% | -20.0% | -26.2% | -8.6% | -6.4% |
| Wind | -2.1% | +23.6% | -7.6% | -11.6% | +6.0% | +15.1% |
Analyst Comments
- Nuclear power development is seen as a long-term trend in China, aimed at reducing air pollution and replacing coal-fired generation.
- The build-out of nuclear power units is expected to benefit equipment makers like Shanghai Electric and operators like CGN Power.
- The cooperation with Kenya could increase solar demand in Africa and support Chinese manufacturers such as GCL-Poly.
Sector Comparisons (Peer Analysis)
| Company | Mkt Cap (USDm) | Closing Price | Rating | Target Price | PER (x) | P/BV (x) | DY (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaneng Power | 22,059 | 9.28 | Hold | 9.50 | 7.9/8.0 | 1.3/1.2 | 6.4/6.4 | 18.1/16.4 |
| China Resources Power | 12,724 | 20.55 | Buy | 25.00 | 8.0/7.8 | 1.2/1.1 | 4.3/4.5 | 16.0/14.8 |
| Datang Power | 11,824 | 3.41 | Hold | 4.50 | 8.4/6.8 | 0.8/0.7 | 5.3/6.4 | 9.0/12.2 |
| Huadian Power | 10,184 | 7.78 | Hold | 8.80 | 8.7/8.7 | 1.5/1.3 | 4.3/4.4 | 17.6/15.3 |
| China Power International | 5,261 | 5.58 | Buy | 4.60 | 10.0/9.8 | 1.3/1.2 | 4.1/4.3 | 13.5/12.6 |
| Average | - | - | - | - | 8.6/8.2 | 1.2/1.1 | 4.9/5.2 | 14.9/14.3 |
| Company | Mkt Cap (USDm) | Closing Price | Rating | Target Price | PER (x) | P/BV (x) | DY (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGN Power | 20,522 | 3.50 | Buy | 4.00 | 19.9/16.7 | 2.2/2.0 | 1.6/1.9 | 11.5/12.4 |
| HK & China Gas | 23,780 | 15.94 | NR | NR | 23.6/22.0 | 3.1/2.9 | 2.3/2.4 | 13.6/13.8 |
| China Gas | 8,234 | 12.76 | Buy | 16.50 | 19.7/15.9 | 3.4/2.9 | 1.1/1.5 | 18.8/19.1 |
| China Resources Gas | 6,312 | 22.00 | Hold | 22.00 | 16.5/14.2 | 2.6/2.3 | 3.9/3.9 | 6.9/6.7 |
| ENN Energy | 6,449 | 46.15 | Hold | 51.00 | 15.6/13.4 | 2.8/2.4 | 1.9/2.2 | 19.6/19.8 |
| Towgas China | 2,320 | 6.75 | Hold | 7.80 | 13.3/11.6 | 1.2/1.1 | 1.7/1.9 | 9.4/10.0 |
| Average | - | - | - | - | 16.8/14.6 | 2.4/2.1 | 1.7/2.0 | 14.5/14.9 |
| Company | Mkt Cap (USDm) | Closing Price | Rating | Target Price | PER (x) | P/BV (x) | DY (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCL-Poly | 3,217 | 1.61 | Buy | 2.80 | 9.9/7.1 | 1.2/1.1 | 0.7/0.9 | 12.2/14.7 |
| Xinyi Solar | 2,411 | 2.84 | Buy | 3.60 | 14.9/11.0 | 3.5/2.8 | 2.4/3.2 | 28.2/29.6 |
| GCL New Energy | 1,092 | 0.61 | Buy | 1.60 | 16.5/8.4 | 2.3/1.6 | 0.0/0.0 | 12.3/17.4 |
| Singyes Solar | 793 | 8.83 | Hold | 12.20 | 6.6/5.5 | 1.3/1.0 | 1.5/1.8 | 21.6/21.1 |
| United PV | 575 | 0.94 | NR | NR | 11.6/9.4 | 1.2/0.9 | N/A/N/A | 14.2/11.3 |
| Comtec Solar | 165 | 0.92 | NR | NR | 10.7/17.1 | 0.6/0.7 | 2.2/N/A | 4.3/5.3 |
| Average | - | - | - | - | 11.7/9.7 | 1.7/1.3 | 1.4/1.2 | 15.4/16.6 |
Power Generation Trends
- Chinese power generation has remained sluggish.
- Hydro power generation saw a 34.0% increase MoM in June, with a 16.4% YoY increase.
- Thermal power generation decreased by 2.4% MoM in June, with a -5.8% YoY decline.
- Wind power generation increased by 1.1% MoM in May, with a 9.8% YoY increase.
Wind Power Insights
- Wind generation was strong in May 2015.
- Wind speed varied across provinces, with Gansu showing a 9.2% WoW increase and Jilin a 4.4% increase.
- The average wind speed in select provinces saw a mild WoW change, with Inner Mongolia showing the largest YoY decline at -17.1%.
Solar Spot Price Analysis
- Solar spot prices recorded a mild rebound.
- Polysilicon price increased by 0.1% WoW to USD15.48/kg.
- Solar wafer price also increased by 0.1% WoW to USD0.807/piece.
- Polysilicon imports to China were monitored as part of the market analysis.
Conclusion
The report highlights the growth in solar and nuclear power development in China, with positive outlooks for related industries. Coal prices remained flat but inventory levels increased slightly. Wind generation showed seasonal strength, while overall power generation remained below expectations. The cooperation between China and Kenya is expected to boost solar demand in Africa and support Chinese manufacturers.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
