2016年-数据局_MorganStanley：2016年科技电信和媒体行业展望_242页_8mb

Equity Research Spring Training Summary

Event Overview

• Event Name: Equity Research Spring Training
• Date: Friday, May 6, 2016
• Location: Morgan Stanley Headquarters, 1585 Broadway, 41st Floor, New York City
• Theme: Technology, Media & Telecom Teach-In
• Structure: The event included a variety of sessions covering different sectors, including Software, Communication Equipment & Networking, IT Services, Semiconductors, IT Hardware, Telecom Services, Media, Cable & Satellite, and Internet.
• Agenda Highlights:
  • Breakfast & Registration
  • Welcome & Opening Remarks by David Adelman
  • Software & Services presentation by Keith Weiss
  • Communication Equipment & Networking session with James Faucette and Meta Marshall
  • Break
  • IT Services by Brian Essex
  • Semiconductors with Joseph Moore and Craig Hettenbach
  • IT Hardware by Katy Huberty
  • Morgan Stanley IT Panel
  • TMT Product Toolkit (Sales & Trading Panel)
  • Telecom Services by Simon Flannery
  • Break
  • Media, Cable & Satellite by Ben Swinburne
  • Internet by Ryan Fiftal
  • Cross-Sector Q&A
  • Event Concludes

Core Content & Key Themes

Software & Services

• Focus: Identifying the next $100 billion software company.
• Key Points:
  • The rise of SaaS-based applications is a significant trend.
  • Software companies have higher ROIC compared to hardware companies.
  • The next big software companies may come from areas like open source, data stores, and containerization (e.g., Docker).
  • Security consolidation is a potential growth area due to increasing threats and the need for more effective solutions.
  • The "App Dev for the Masses" concept could lead to new opportunities in software development.

Communication Equipment & Networking

• Overview: Hardware markets are maturing, with software lagging behind.
• Market Trends:
  • Hardware replacement cycles are lengthening.
  • Growth rates across various hardware sectors (e.g., desktop PCs, notebooks, tablets, smartphones, servers, storage, enterprise networking) have slowed significantly.
  • Profit pools are stagnating, and consolidation is occurring among market leaders.
• Investment Thesis:
  • The synchronized market maturity across multiple hardware sectors suggests a decline in growth and profitability.
  • Moore's Law is now driving down operating expenses rather than increasing compute power, which is critical for data center operators and mobile users.

IT Services, Semiconductors, and IT Hardware

• IT Services: Brian Essex discusses the importance of IT services in the broader tech ecosystem.
• Semiconductors: Joseph Moore and Craig Hettenbach analyze the semiconductor industry, highlighting analog and microcontroller segments.
• IT Hardware: Katy Huberty outlines the growth potential of IT hardware and services, emphasizing the shift from infrastructure to applications.

Key Analysts and Their Focus Areas

• Keith Weiss – Software & Services
• Brian Essex – IT Services
• James Faucette – Communication Systems & Applications
• Meta Marshall – Communication Systems & Applications
• Joseph Moore – Semiconductors
• Craig Hettenbach – Semiconductors
• Katy Huberty – IT Hardware
• Simon Flannery – Telecom Services
• Ben Swinburne – Media, Cable & Satellite
• Ryan Fiftal – Internet

Investment Implications

• Hardware:
  • Declining growth rates and profit pools.
  • High investment levels may lead to lower ROIC.
  • Consolidation is likely as the market matures.
• Software:
  • Higher ROIC due to better cost optimization and scalability.
  • SaaS-based models are key to future growth.
  • Open source and cloud computing are important drivers.
• Technology Trends:
  • The increasing importance of machine learning and IoT in leveraging big data.
  • The need for reduced power consumption and increased battery life in hardware.
  • The shift from infrastructure to applications in software.

Disclosure Notes

• Morgan Stanley may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in its research.
• Investors should consider this report as only one factor in making investment decisions.
• For analyst certification and other disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section at the end of the report.

Summary of Financial Metrics

• $100B Software Company Characteristics:
  • Market Cap: $100,000,000,000
  • 18x Multiple
  • 25% Tax Rate
  • $5,555,555,556 EBIT
  • 30% Operating Margin
  • $24,691,358,025 Annual Revenue
• Key Sectors:
  • Software: CRM, SaaS, security, and open source.
  • Networking: Core Networking, Mobile Edge Network, Data Center Network.
  • Semiconductors: Analog, microcontrollers, and related components.
  • IT Hardware: Servers, storage, and enterprise networking.
  • Telecom Services: North American and global telecom trends.
  • Media & Internet: Cable, satellite, entertainment, and advertising.

Conclusion

• The event provided insights into the evolving landscape of the Technology, Media & Telecom sectors.
• A clear trend towards software-driven value creation and hardware maturation was identified.
• Investment opportunities are shifting towards SaaS, open source, and security consolidation.
• Analysts emphasized the importance of understanding the changing dynamics between hardware and software, and the role of Moore's Law in shaping future investments.