英国皇家国际事务研究所-阿联酋外交和国家安全政策中的风险感知和偏好（英文）-2020.7-41页_326kb

Summary of UAE Foreign and National Security Policy

Core Content

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has evolved into a significant geopolitical player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past decade, moving from a more conservative and self-preservation-focused foreign policy to a more assertive and activist approach. This transformation is largely attributed to the leadership of Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ), the de facto ruler of Abu Dhabi and the UAE.

Main Views

• Shift in Policy Approach: The UAE's foreign and national security policy has shifted from a focus on survival to an ambition of shaping regional political and governance structures.
• UAE Model: The UAE model combines economic openness, strong governance, and a relatively secular and liberal social environment with a closed political system and an entrenched security state. It rejects political and religious ideologies that challenge the state's supremacy.
• Threat Perception: The UAE's leadership perceives transnational political Islamist ideologies, particularly those promoted by Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood (with support from Qatar and Turkey), as existential threats to regional stability and its own governance model.
• Diplomatic Tendencies: The UAE is more aggressive against the Muslim Brotherhood but cautious in its approach to Iran, often using economic and diplomatic pressure rather than direct confrontation.
• Decision-Making Process: Policy decisions are made by a small, closely-knit group of leaders, which can lead to reactive and ad hoc strategies, sometimes resulting in overcorrection and missed opportunities.
• Western Perceptions: Western policymakers often misunderstand the UAE's approach, focusing on its perceived liberalism while overlooking its authoritarian tendencies and strategic ambitions.
• Regional Role: The UAE's increasing regional role is not fully appreciated, especially by its Western allies, who may prioritize economic and strategic benefits over deeper understanding of its foreign policy goals.

Key Information

• UAE Structure: The UAE is composed of seven emirates, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai holding the most influence. The Supreme Council elects the president and prime minister, with Abu Dhabi's ruler typically serving as president and Dubai's as prime minister.
• Federal National Council: This elected body has a 50:50 mix of appointed and elected members, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai holding the most seats.
• Historical Context: The UAE's foreign policy was initially shaped by Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan, who emphasized mediation, multilateralism, and Arab nationalism. After his death in 2004, MbZ took the helm, leading to a more assertive foreign policy.
• Military Development: MbZ played a key role in modernizing the UAE armed forces, promoting professionalization, and strengthening defense ties with both Western and Russian powers.
• Arab Spring Impact: The Arab Spring of 2011 accelerated the UAE's shift towards a more active role in regional security, as it perceived the need to protect its economic interests and regional stability.
• Human Rights and Governance: The UAE's human rights record is criticized, with a focus on maintaining control over speech and security. It has been accused of engaging in tactical alliances with violent religious groups and favoring strongmen leaders over institutional development.
• Regional Conflicts: The UAE has been involved in several regional conflicts, including its support for Khalifa Haftar in Libya and its role in the 2017 Qatar crisis. It has also taken a firm stance against the Muslim Brotherhood, while being more cautious in its dealings with Iran.

Conclusion

The UAE's foreign and national security policy is driven by a complex mix of internal priorities, regional threats, and strategic ambitions. While it is often seen as a liberal and economically dynamic state, its governance model and security apparatus reflect a more authoritarian approach. As the UAE continues to assert itself in regional politics, its policies and relationships will likely come under increased scrutiny. Understanding the UAE's strategic goals and the nuances of its foreign policy is essential for Western policymakers and allies to engage effectively with this influential regional actor.