20250801-招银国际-China_Economy_PMI_points_to_waning_economic_momentum_5页

China Economy: PMI Analysis Summary

Economic momentum is weakening, as indicated by China's manufacturing PMI, which edged down to 49.3% in July, below expectations. Key factors include contraction in new orders and export orders, signaling the end of export front-loading. At the same time, deflationary pressures eased due to rising raw material prices from policy efforts to curb involution competition. Non-manufacturing PMI also softened, with service and construction activities moderating. The economy is expected to weaken in 3Q2025 due to declining external and domestic demand, though a policy easing window may open in 4Q2025 following potential trade developments.