2008年-ECB欧洲央行_Euro_area_balance_of_payments_and_international_investment_position_statistics_-_2007_quality_report_38页_1mb

Summary of the Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics (March 2008)

Core Content

This document presents an annual quality report on the Euro Area Balance of Payments (b.o.p.) and International Investment Position (i.i.p.) statistics, in accordance with ECB/2004/15 Guideline. The report outlines the quality dimensions of the data, including integrity, methodological soundness, periodicity and timeliness, accuracy, revision practice, stability, consistency, and accessibility. It also discusses methodological developments and data revisions in 2007, and evaluates the reliability and accuracy of the statistics.

Main Points

1. Methodological Soundness

• The methodologies used by Member States to compile b.o.p. and i.i.p. are detailed in the ECB's publication "European Union balance of payments and international investment position statistical methods" (last updated May 2007).
• The ECB and NCBs have implemented a security-by-security (s-b-s) data collection system and a Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) to improve the accuracy of portfolio investment statistics.
• The ECB has introduced new breakdowns in the b.o.p. and i.i.p., including FDI details, sector breakdowns, and valuation adjustments for the i.i.p.

2. Data Revisions and Stability

• Data revisions are conducted according to a predetermined schedule, with quarterly data revised with the publication of the following quarter's statistics and annual data revised with the publication of data for the next two years.
• The stability of the data is measured using indicators such as directional reliability and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
• The directional reliability for income debits was low (63%), while direct investment liabilities showed a significant improvement (74%).
• The MAPE indicates a continuous deterioration in the stability of income estimates and a moderate improvement in goods and services estimates.

3. Accuracy and Data Quality

• Member States regularly assess the accuracy of source data, including coverage, sampling error, and response error.
• The ECB performs checks on the contributions from Member States and the ECB itself to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the data.
• The revisions are necessary to improve data quality, especially when initial estimates are based on incomplete or inaccurate information.

4. Consistency and External Comparisons

• The euro area b.o.p. and i.i.p. data show some asymmetries with data from the UK, US, and Japan, particularly in the balance of services and investment income.
• The data on the balance of payments are consistent with the fifth edition of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5), but the sector breakdown is estimated as a residual due to incomplete information on the final holders of securities.

5. Accessibility and Data Dissemination

• The ECB provides access to the data through its Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW).
• The data are published with different frequencies: monthly for b.o.p., quarterly for i.i.p., and annually for certain FDI details.
• The ECB has also improved the accessibility of data by including more detailed breakdowns by currency, sector, and geographical counterpart.

Key Information

• New Breakdowns Introduced in 2007:

  • Additional details on FDI, including equity capital for listed and unlisted companies and cross-border real estate holdings.
  • A breakdown of valuation adjustments in the annual i.i.p. into price changes, exchange rate changes, and other adjustments.
  • Data on the euro area's balance of payments with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Hong Kong, introduced as part of the geographical breakdown.

• Implementation of s-b-s and CSDB:

  • Several Member States, including Belgium, Greece, Spain, and others, have already implemented the s-b-s data collection system.
  • The full implementation is expected by early 2009, with a schedule for the remaining countries.

• Data Revisions:

  • Revisions to the net i.i.p. for end-2005 amounted to EUR -21 billion, which is $0.3%$ of GDP.
  • The revisions to the end-2006 i.i.p. were relatively minor.
  • The size of the net errors and omissions in the euro area has increased since mid-2003, with some interruption in 2005-2006.

• External Consistency:

  • The euro area shows higher service exports to the UK than the UK reports as service imports from the euro area.
  • The asymmetry is about $40%$ of the higher value.
  • The euro area's current account balances with Japan have shown increasing asymmetries over the last three years, although they remain relatively small.

• Methodological Improvements:

  • The ECB and NCBs have implemented new methodologies to improve the accuracy and consistency of the data.
  • The implementation of International Accounting Standards (IAS) is not uniform across Member States, which may affect the stability and accuracy of the data.

• Stability Indicators:

  • Directional reliability for income debits is low (63%), but has improved for direct investment liabilities (74%).
  • The MAPE for income estimates has deteriorated over time, while it has improved for goods and services.

Conclusion

The ECB and NCBs are continuously working to improve the quality and reliability of the euro area b.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics. While some areas, such as income estimates, still show weaknesses, significant improvements have been made in direct investment and other categories. The implementation of s-b-s and CSDB systems, along with new methodologies and data collection practices, aims to enhance the accuracy and consistency of the data over time.