2023-11-13-美联储-估计的新凯恩斯主义模型中的内生劳动力供给_名义刚性与实际刚性_59页_2mb

Key Findings on Endogenous Labor Supply in a New-Keynesian Model

• Model Innovations:

  • Incorporates endogenous labor supply (both extensive margin via labor force participation and intensive margin via hours worked) within a search and matching framework.
  • Features nominal wage bargaining with staggered wages and financial frictions to enhance realism.
  • Tightly links labor market dynamics to inflation and output gaps.

• Key Mechanisms:

  • Wage Rigidities: A low degree of nominal wage rigidities and high degree of real wage rigidities are essential for forecasting slow labor market recovery and subdued inflation post-Great Recession.
  • Recruiting Costs: A higher share of post-match recruiting costs relative to pre-match costs increases labor market volatility and aids in persistent outcomes, consistent with observed data.
  • Financial Frictions: These generate a persistent decline in investment, which delays labor market recovery and provides upward pressure on inflation.

• Labor Market Gaps:

  • No single labor market gap (e.g., unemployment rate gap) captures all aspects of labor market slack effectively.
  • A principal component analysis-based indicator, constructed from multiple gaps, serves as a better leading indicator of economic conditions.
  • Labor force participation and hours data are crucial for estimating model parameters, influencing the slope of the Phillips curve.

• Forecasting Performance:

  • The model performs well during and after the Great Recession, successfully replicating the slow job recovery and missing disinflation.
  • Endogenous labor supply margins are critical for improving forecasting accuracy, particularly at turning points.

• Policy and Estimation:

  • Estimated using Bayesian methods with a rich dataset, including LFPR, workweek, vacancies, and inflation measures.
  • Results highlight the importance of real wage rigidities and post-match costs in shaping business cycle dynamics.

In conclusion, the model demonstrates that combining rich labor market details with appropriate rigidities and financial channel frictions enhances forecasting and provides insights into the drivers of post-recession dynamics.