2025-06-03-Bernstein-欧洲食品零售_英国价格更新-市场依旧理性且乐购的强势地位得到巩固_28页_1mb

European Food Retail Market Update (June 2025)

Summary

The European Food Retail report, dated June 3, 2025, analyzes the UK grocery market, highlighting key trends and retailer performances. The market is characterized by rational pricing and no signs of a price war. Tesco continues to dominate with competitive pricing, gaining market share and closing the gap with Aldi. Sainsbury's has seen improving performance, narrowing its price gap with Tesco and showing positive consumer response. Aldi remains the cheapest option, with other retailers like Asda and Waitrose significantly more expensive.

Key Points

1. Market Rationality & Pricing: Prices remain stable with no indication of a price war. Grocers are passing cost savings cautiously as inflation moderates. Higher costs pressure is driving consumer value-seeking behavior.

2. Tesco Performance: Tesco continues its price discipline, offering average basket prices -6% cheaper in 2025 compared to Sainsbury's (-7.5%). Its Aldi Price Match and Clubcard Price promotions are boosting customer loyalty and volume gains.

3. Sainsbury's Turnaround: The Food First strategy is effective, narrowing the price gap with Tesco. Same-store price increases in Q1 were higher due to Nectar Price promotions, but margin and share gains reflect operational improvements.

4. Consumer Behavior: UK consumers remain price-sensitive, with higher proportions shopping around to manage living costs. Food inflation remains elevated, pressuring the sector.

5. Non-Food Segment Risks: Non-discretionary spending still faces challenges, with consumers cutting back on non-essentials. Sainsbury's and Asda are particularly exposed to these pressures.

Investment Implications

• Tesco: Rated Outperform with a price target of £430. Expect continued share gains through volume and value promotions.
• Sainsbury's: Rated Market-Perform with a price target of £3.20. Still facing competitive pressures but showing operational improvements.
• Ocado: Rated Underperform with a price target of £2.40. Faces delays in cost savings and execution risks.

Methodology

The analysis uses two data sources: The Grocer and Which?. Pricing data reveals variations in basket costs among retailers:

Retailer	Average Price Premium vs. Aldi
Aldi	0
Lidl	+1%
Asda	+10%
Morrisons	+14%
Sainsbury's	+16%
Waitrose	+32%

Private label pricing trends reflect aggressive value propositions among retailers, particularly Tesco.

Analyst Notes

• William Woods authored the report.
• Disclosures and rating definitions are included to ensure independence.

Author & Contact

William Woods, BernSTEIN Research
Email: william.woods@bernsteinsg.com