2025-06-16-Jefferies-夏季欧盟钢铁价差的需求不确定性与缓解_8页_333kb

European Steel Equity Research Summary

Overview

The June 16, 2025, Jefferies Equity Research report on European Steel discusses the current state and outlook of the EU steel sector, highlighting challenges from global uncertainty, weak demand, and competition, along with potential positives from regulatory actions and infrastructure investments.

Demand Outlook

• Current Demand: Eurofer downgraded its 2025 steel demand forecast to -0.9% YoY, due to low business confidence, weakening industrial production, and global economic factors like US tariffs. Key end markets, such as autos and construction, show muted underlying demand.
• Future Projections: Demand is expected to rebound modestly to +3.4% in 2026 if geopolitical and trade tensions ease and the economic backdrop improves.
• Factors Influencing Demand: Seasonal trough nearing, with idled capacity potentially affecting supply.

Supply Dynamics

• Production Decline: EU steel production fell from 170mT in 2017 to 129mT in 2024, averaging 147mT over 2014-24, leaving over 9mT idle capacity.
• Capacity Utilization: Low utilization rates in Germany, Italy, Spain, and France (below 70% in 2024).
• Challenges: High energy costs, non-level global playing field (due to trade issues), decarbonization needs, and regulatory burdens.
• Capacity Trends: Some idled capacity unlikely to return due to financing, restart costs, and CO2 expenses; potential recovery to over 135mT by 2027-2028 through actions like the EU steel action plan and import quotas.

Price and Margin Analysis

• Current Prices: EU spot spreads fell by €50/t in May-June amid global trade uncertainty and lower priced imports, though 2Q saw support from the EC Steel Action Plan and raw material cost reductions.
• Margins: Integrated steel margins robust in 2Q (€200/t), boosted by higher prices and easing raw material costs, but pressures from muted demand and lower penetration imports could sustain downward pressure.
• Outlook: Prices remain strong historically, but global trade and tariff uncertainty, along with weak demand, have led to spreads rolling over.

Key Players and Valuation

• Leading Companies: ArcelorMittal is the largest player with ~28.8mT capacity, Eurofer notes. Other key firms include SSAB, Aperam, Thyssenkrupp, and Tata Steel.
• Valuation Insights: Jefferies recommends SSAB and Aperam; views ArcelorMittal cautiously due to risks like macro uncertainty. In 2025, demand dynamics and US plate pricing are critical.
• Ratings: SSAB (BUY), ArcelorMittal (HOLD), Aperam (BUY); advises holding MT given near-term risks.

Future Outlook

• Positive Factors: EU steel action plan, German infrastructure fund, CBAM implementation, and import quotas could drive production and prices back to historical levels.
• Negative Factors: Global trade uncertainty, low demand from end markets, and persistent idled capacity pose risks over H2 25 and beyond.
• Global Perspective: EU steelmakers face loss of ground to emerging markets with lower costs; however, protective measures may support domestic production.

Analyst Recommendations and Risks

• Suggested Actions: Hold position for ArcelorMittal; European Steel sector overall cautious.
• Risks: Muted demand, supply constraints easing, import competition (e.g., Turkey, South Korea); potential economic slowdown or unchanged trade policies.
• Disclaimer: Reports based on Jefferies client data; investments may not suit all; risks include price volatility and currency effects.

Company-Specific Insights

• ArcelorMittal: European leader undergoing decarbonization; potential winner with capacity and strategic investments, but restart costs noted.
• SSAB and Aperam: Top picks due to positive outlook and decarbonization readiness.