20171117-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_4页_440kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) showed mixed performance over the past three trading days:

• HSI:

  • Closed at 29,018 on 16 Nov, up 167 points from 15 Nov (28,851) and down 30 points from 14 Nov (29,152).
  • The daily turnover was $113.9 billion.
  • The index fell from the top of the Bollinger Band (29,331) but remained above the middle line (28,658).
  • The MACD bullish gap narrowed, indicating a cooling trend.
  • Technical Levels:
    • Primary resistance: 29,320
    • Primary support: 28,658
    • 20-DMA: 28,658
    • 50-DMA: 28,295
    • 14-days RSI: 59.52

• HSCEI:

  • Closed at 11,533 on 16 Nov, up 121 points from 15 Nov (11,412) and down 82 points from 14 Nov (11,601).
  • The index showed a stronger rebound than the HSI, with the 14-days RSI at 50.63.
  • Technical Levels:
    • Primary resistance: 11,818
    • Primary support: 11,373
    • 10-days MA: 11,607
    • 50-days MA: 11,373
    • 250-days MA: 10,478

Key Market Drivers

• HSI:

  • The index was driven by strong performance from blue-chip technology and Chinese insurance stocks.
  • Tencent (700) beat market expectations, leading to a price increase of over 2%.
  • Ping An (2318) rose over 5%, hitting an all-time high.
  • The US stock market also rebounded due to strong earnings from Cisco and Walmart, and the House passage of a Republican tax cut plan.
  • The 10-Year US Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 2.37%.

• HSCEI:

  • The index was supported by the performance of Chinese insurers and tech firms.
  • The overall market sentiment was positive, with the index showing resilience despite a pullback.

Cathay Pacific (0293) Update

• October Performance:
  • Passenger carried increased by 6% to 2.925 million, but the load factor dropped to 81.3% due to increased capacity.
  • Cargo freight rose by 4.8%, with a load factor of 69.3%.
• 10-Month Performance:
  • Passenger carried increased by 0.7%, while load factor fell by 0.2% to 84.4%.
  • Cargo freight rose by 10.8% YoY.
• Financial Outlook:
  • Cathay is expected to continue its full-year loss in 2017 due to falling passenger yields, oil hedging losses, and restructuring costs.
  • Valuation:
    • Current P/B ratio is 0.88x.
    • Share price is expected to recover in 2018.
    • Medium to long-term investors could consider accumulating shares near HKD 11.50.
• Current Price and RSI:
  • Closed at HKD 11.80.
  • 14-days RSI: 27.00.

China Resources Land (1109) Update

• October Sales:
  • Contracted sales: RMB12.07 billion.
  • Contracted GFA: 746,288 square meters.
• 10-Month Performance:
  • Accumulated contracted sales: RMB112.7 billion, up 24% YoY.
  • Contracted GFA: 7,351,675 square meters, up 23% YoY.
• Sales Target:
  • Group target sales for 2017: RMB120 billion.
  • Achievement ratio: 93.9%, higher than the industry average.
• Land Acquisition:
  • Acquired 48 pieces of land with total GFA of 9 million square meters in the first 10 months.
  • Total land bank: 50 million square meters.
• Valuation:
  • Estimated NAV: HKD 27.3.
  • Current price is at a 18.5% discount to NAV.
  • Short-term share price is expected to consolidate.

Stock Connect Statistics

• SH-HK Connect:
  • Balance: RMB13.00 billion.
  • As % of quota: 100.03%.
• SZ-HK Connect:
  • Balance: RMB12.39 billion.
  • As % of quota: 95.27%.
• Combined Southbound:
  • Balance: RMB17.79 billion.
  • As % of quota: 84.70%.

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (Southbound)

Ten Most Actively Traded Stocks

Ten Short Sell Stocks

Economic Calendar Highlights

• Tuesday:

  • MSCI releases quarterly review results.
  • China: October Retail Sales (YoY) at 10.4% (prior: 10.3%).
  • China: October Industrial Production (YoY) at 6.3% (prior: 6.6%).
  • China: October Fixed Assets Ex-Rural (YoY YTD) at 7.3% (prior: 7.5%).
  • Eurozone: 3Q GDP (YoY) at 2.5% (prior: 2.5%).
  • U.K.: October CPI (YoY) at 3.2% (prior: 3.0%).
  • Eurozone: Major central bank officials deliver speeches.

• Wednesday:

  • Hong Kong: Tencent (0700) releases 3Q earnings.
  • Japan: 3Q GDP (YoY) at 1.5% (prior: 2.5%).
  • U.S.: October CPI (YoY) at 2.0% (prior: 2.2%).

• Thursday:

  • Eurozone: October CPI (YoY Finalized) at 1.4% (prior: 1.5%).
  • U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 11) at 239K.
  • U.S.: Continuing Claims (Nov. 4) at 1,901K.
  • U.S.: October Industrial Production (MoM) at 0.4% (prior: 0.3%).

• Friday:

  • U.S.: October New Housing Starts at 1,188K (prior: 1,127K).

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions in this report are the views of KGI Asia Ltd.
• KGI Asia Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data.
• The report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.
• The analyst(s) involved are SFC licensed and have no financial interest in the covered stocks.