世界银行-缅甸经济监测_2025年6月_经济余震（英）_53页_3mb

Myanmar Economic Outlook (June 2025)

Recent Developments:

• A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar in March 2025, resulting in significant economic damage equivalent to 4% of GDP and production losses, particularly in manufacturing and services. Firms experienced operational disruptions, with 25% reporting damage to workplaces and 39% noting sales declines.
• Trade surplus reached 2% of GDP due to robust agricultural exports (rice exports ↑27%) and tight import restrictions, amplified by the "export first" policy.

Inflation & Currency:

• Headline inflation is 34.1%, driven by supply chain issues, import restrictions, and conflict. The kyat stabilized due to forex controls, but distortions persist, with businesses citing high operational costs.
• Energy tariffs increased significantly in September 2024, further fueling inflation and hindering business operations.

Poverty & Labor:

• Poverty remains high at 31.0%, exacerbated by the earthquake and conflict. FDI inflows are stagnant, reflecting weak investment climate.
• Labor market shifts toward agriculture, especially among educated workers, while formal employment declined by 500,000 in 2024, with rising casual work.

Fiscal & Financial Challenges:

• Fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in FY2025/26, financed largely through domestic borrowing and Central Bank liquidity injections.
• Banking sector faces high NPLs (18.4%) and liquidity strains, with tighter monetary policies raising borrowing costs.

Outlook & Risks:

• Economic contraction of 2.5% expected in FY2025/26 due to earthquake damage and supply chain issues.
• Inflation remains entrenched at 31%, while growth is projected at 3% in FY2026/27, contingent on reconstruction progress.
• Downside risks include delayed earthquake recovery, electoral tensions, and further supply disruptions, threatening long-term development.

Key Challenges: Earthquake damage, trade restrictions, high inflation, and conflict.