2024-10-13-未来能源研究所-海上风电考察_美国大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸海上风电场的影响_效益和成本（英）_64页_1mb

Offshore Wind Power: Effects, Benefits, and Costs Summary

1. Introduction

Offshore wind power is considered crucial for reducing energy-related emissions due to its ability to serve coastal areas and complement other non-emitting electricity sources. While supportive of decarbonization goals, its impacts on replacing emitting versus other non-emitting generation, improving public health, and affecting total electricity costs remain uncertain. The study analyzes the effects of 32 planned or proposed offshore wind farms along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, projected to generate about 2.5% of US and Canadian electricity by 2035.

The study examines:

• Emissions reductions (GHG, air pollutants)
• Health benefits (prevention of premature deaths)
• Effects on electricity generation mix (fossil vs. renewable)
• Economic impacts (costs, benefits, net societal impacts)

2. Key Findings

Environmental and Health Impacts

Generation Displacement:

• Offshore wind disproportionately reduces fossil fuel generation (55% of prevented generation is fossil-fueled, despite fossil fuel making up only 27% of total projected generation).

Emissions Reduction:

• Reduces GHG emissions by 41 million tons (5% of total power sector emissions) in 2035.
• Reduces NOₓ, SO₂, and PM₂.₅ emissions significantly.

Health Benefits:

• Prevents approximately 520 premature deaths annually from reduced air pollution.
• The largest share (15%) occurs in the New York City area.

Emissions Damage Avoidance:

• Climate change damage avoidance is estimated at $9.2 billion annually.
• Health benefits are worth $40/MWh of offshore wind generation.

Economic Analysis

Benefit-Cost Ratio:

• Mid-cost scenario: Benefit-cost ratio of 14:1, with net benefits of $74/MWh.
• Low-cost scenario: Benefit-cost ratio of approximately 700:1.
• High-cost scenario: Benefit-cost ratio of 4:1.

Electricity Costs & Government Revenues:

• Despite higher costs of offshore wind, electricity bills decrease due to overall reduction in supply costs.
• Net increase in government revenues due to the effect on energy market dynamics.

Additional Economic Benefits:

• Reduction in natural gas prices leads to savings for consumers and businesses.

Environmental Justice:

• Minority populations (Black, Hispanic) and low-income groups are disproportionately affected by the public health benefits, due to high pollution reduction in higher-density urban and marginalized areas.

3. Conclusions

Offshore wind farms offer substantial environmental and health benefits, including large reductions in GHG emissions and air pollution-related premature deaths. Despite the persistence of costs, the net societal benefits are positive in the mid-cost and low-cost scenarios, with a strong benefit-cost ratio and significant offsetting savings from reduced electricity and natural gas bills. The analysis suggests that despite the closure of PPAs for some sites, the projected benefits outweigh the costs.