20220610-天风证券-金融工程_行业景气度跟踪半月报_11页_2mb
报告摘要
金融工程：行业景气度跟踪半月报-20220610 总结
核心内容
本报告由天风证券金融工程团队发布，旨在跟踪各中信行业在2022年6月10日的景气度变化，包括历史盈利表现和当前预期ROE与营业收入增速。通过分析行业ROETTM、预期ROE增速、预期营业收入增速及其历史分位数，为投资者提供行业趋势参考。
主要观点
1. 行业历史盈利跟踪
- ROETTM（Return on Equity Trend to Market） 是衡量行业盈利能力的重要指标，通过计算行业整体的归母净利润与平均股东权益的比值得出。
- 当前ROETTM分布：
- 过去一年的高点：石油开采Ⅱ、电信运营Ⅱ、专用机械
- 过去一年的低点：轻工制造、建筑施工、食品
- 过去十年的高点：半导体、稀有金属、新能源动力系统
- 过去十年的低点：房地产开发和运营、农林牧渔、发电及电网
2. 行业景气度跟踪
- 景气度通过预期ROE增速和预期营业收入增速进行衡量，对比一个月前的预期增速变化以评估行业动向。
- 预期ROE增速较高行业：稀有金属、农林牧渔、新能源动力系统
- 预期ROE增速较低行业：光学光电、证券Ⅱ、石油化工
- 预期营业收入增速较高行业：新能源动力系统、稀有金属、电源设备
- 预期营业收入增速较低行业：证券Ⅱ、保险Ⅱ、钢铁
关键信息
行业预期ROE增速及变化
| 行业 | 当前预期增速 | 排序 | 一个月前预期增速 | 排序 | 排序变化 | 预期增速变化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 稀有金属 | 15.85% | 1 | 10.07% | 2 | ↑ | 5.78% |
| 煤炭开采洗选 | 6.52% | 6 | 3.25% | 27 | ↑ | 3.27% |
| 石油开采Ⅱ | 1.98% | 28 | 0.91% | 38 | ↑ | 1.06% |
| 电源设备 | 6.66% | 4 | 6.20% | 8 | ↑ | 0.46% |
| 电气设备 | 4.23% | 14 | 3.98% | 21 | ↑ | 0.25% |
| 发电及电网 | 5.54% | 8 | 5.42% | 14 | ↑ | 0.12% |
| 电信运营Ⅱ | 0.73% | 35 | 0.61% | 39 | ↑ | 0.12% |
| 银行 | 0.92% | 34 | 0.95% | 37 | ↑ | -0.02% |
| 建筑施工 | 1.63% | 32 | 1.66% | 35 | ↑ | -0.03% |
| 酒类 | 4.66% | 12 | 4.84% | 15 | ↑ | -0.18% |
| 其他化学制品Ⅱ | 6.65% | 5 | 6.86% | 6 | ↑ | -0.21% |
| 商贸零售 | 3.02% | 22 | 3.27% | 26 | ↑ | -0.25% |
| 半导体 | 4.13% | 15 | 4.58% | 17 | ↑ | -0.45% |
| 其他医药医疗 | 5.16% | 9 | 5.70% | 11 | ↑ | -0.54% |
| 新能源动力系统 | 6.69% | 3 | 7.25% | 5 | ↑ | -0.56% |
| 乘用车Ⅱ | 2.43% | 24 | 3.03% | 30 | ↑ | -0.59% |
| 专用机械 | 5.57% | 7 | 6.17% | 9 | ↑ | -0.60% |
| 生物医药Ⅱ | 1.28% | 33 | 1.92% | 34 | ↑ | -0.63% |
| 国防军工 | 3.14% | 19 | 3.79% | 23 | ↑ | -0.66% |
| 通信设备制造 | 3.94% | 16 | 4.70% | 16 | — | -0.76% |
| 家电 | 3.06% | 20 | 3.89% | 22 | ↑ | -0.84% |
| 建材 | 2.17% | 26 | 3.13% | 29 | ↑ | -0.96% |
| 化学制药 | 3.05% | 21 | 4.27% | 18 | ↓ | -1.23% |
| 汽车零部件Ⅱ | 5.12% | 10 | 6.37% | 7 | ↓ | -1.26% |
| 食品 | 2.81% | 23 | 4.07% | 19 | ↓ | -1.26% |
| 钢铁 | 1.93% | 30 | 3.24% | 28 | ↓ | -1.32% |
| 证券Ⅱ | -0.17% | 38 | 1.28% | 36 | ↓ | -1.45% |
| 纺织服装 | 1.95% | 29 | 3.69% | 24 | ↓ | -1.74% |
| 交通运输 | 4.29% | 13 | 6.12% | 10 | ↓ | -1.84% |
| 房地产开发和运营 | 1.65% | 31 | 3.49% | 25 | ↓ | -1.84% |
| 计算机软件 | 2.19% | 25 | 4.03% | 20 | ↓ | -1.84% |
| 石油化工 | 0.17% | 37 | 2.15% | 33 | ↓ | -1.98% |
| 轻工制造 | 3.41% | 17 | 5.47% | 13 | ↓ | -2.06% |
| 保险Ⅱ | 0.38% | 36 | 5.40% | 32 | ↓ | -2.15% |
| 传媒 | 3.38% | 18 | 5.64% | 12 | ↓ | -2.26% |
| 消费电子 | 4.74% | 11 | 7.50% | 4 | ↓ | -2.77% |
| 农林牧渔 | 9.31% | 2 | 12.28% | 1 | ↓ | -2.96% |
| 光学光电 | -0.84% | 39 | 2.71% | 31 | ↓ | -3.56% |
| 旅游及休闲 | 2.16% | 27 | 8.52% | 3 | ↓ | -6.36% |
行业预期营业收入增速及变化
| 行业 | 当前预期增速 | 排序 | 一个月前预期增速 | 排序 | 排序变化 | 预期增速变化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 新能源动力系统 | 67.14% | 1 | 52.58% | 1 | — | 14.56% |
| 稀有金属 | 42.57% | 2 | 31.00% | 6 | ↑ | 11.57% |
| 石油化工 | 25.36% | 8 | 16.54% | 22 | ↑ | 8.82% |
| 其他化学制品Ⅱ | 34.44% | 5 | 29.30% | 7 | ↑ | 5.15% |
| 电源设备 | 37.34% | 3 | 32.21% | 5 | ↑ | 5.13% |
| 煤炭开采洗选 | 10.97% | 32 | 5.87% | 37 | ↑ | 5.10% |
| 发电及电网 | 12.90% | 27 | 9.60% | 33 | ↑ | 3.30% |
| 交通运输 | 16.50% | 20 | 14.26% | 26 | ↑ | 2.24% |
| 建筑施工 | 14.36% | 24 | 12.18% | 28 | ↑ | 2.18% |
| 生物医药Ⅱ | 18.43% | 15 | 16.27% | 23 | ↑ | 2.15% |
| 专用机械 | 35.00% | 4 | 32.99% | 3 | ↓ | 2.01% |
| 消费电子 | 26.19% | 7 | 24.95% | 11 | ↑ | 1.24% |
| 钢铁 | 3.80% | 37 | 2.63% | 39 | ↑ | 1.17% |
| 商贸零售 | 11.20% | 30 | 10.05% | 32 | ↑ | 1.15% |
| 建材 | 9.61% | 34 | 8.46% | 35 | ↑ | 1.15% |
| 电信运营Ⅱ | 9.65% | 33 | 9.11% | 34 | ↑ | 0.53% |
| 光学光电 | 10.99% | 31 | 10.47% | 31 | — | 0.52% |
| 家电 | 11.83% | 29 | 11.43% | 30 | ↑ | 0.40% |
| 石油开采Ⅱ | 20.29% | 13 | 20.01% | 17 | ↑ | 0.28% |
| 农林牧渔 | 17.45% | 17 | 17.31% | 21 | ↑ | 0.13% |
| 证券Ⅱ | 0.18% | 39 | 11.67% | 29 | ↓ | -11.49% |
| 传媒 | 15.91% | 21 | 28.35% | 8 | ↓ | -12.44% |
| 旅游及休闲 | 16.77% | 19 | 36.42% | 2 | ↓ | -19.65% |
行业预期营业收入增速分位数
| 行业 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 分位数 |
|--------------------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|--------|--------|
| 电源设备 | 22% | 7% | -1% | -2% | 8% | -1% | 1% | 2% | -2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 7% | 100% |
| 新能源动力系统 | 27% | 12% | 9% | 33% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 0% | -7% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 7% | 100% |
| 乘用车Ⅱ | 112% | 17% | 7% | 16% | 12% | 0% | -1% | -1% | -1% | -3% | -1% | 2% | 23% | 92% |
| 专用机械 | 19% | 40% | 0% | 0% | -1% | -10% | -4% | 6% | -6% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 35% | 85% |
| 国防军工 | 26% | 58% | 8% | 13% | 11% | -6% | 16% | 32% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 22% | 22% | 85% |
| 稀有金属 | 38% | 57% | 1% | 12% | 6% | -1% | 7% | 42% | 16% | 23% | 22% | 43% | 34% | 85% |
| 电气设备 | 22% | 17% | 7% | 20% | 9% | 6% | 21% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 9% | 22% | 22% | 85% |
| 其他化学制品Ⅱ | 40% | 29% | 5% | 20% | 12% | 4% | 19% | 33% | 14% | -2% | -1% | 8% | 34% | 85% |
| 轻工制造 | 26% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 16% | 15% | 8% | 19% | 13% | 2% | 16% | 77% |
| 农林牧渔 | 82% | 33% | 24% | -1% | -6% | 4% | 7% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 23% | 17% | 17% | 77% |
| 交通运输 | 52% | 43% | 9% | -1% | -15% | -25% | 11% | 44% | 9% | 8% | 31% | 17% | 17% | 77% |
| 钢铁 | 33% | 19% | -11% | 4% | -9% | -26% | 4% | 44% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 41% | 4% | 31% |
| 建材 | 33% | 29% | 1% | 18% | 9% | -7% | 11% | 37% | 30% | 13% | 38% | 11% | 10% | 31% |
| 光学光电 | 28% | 23% | 25% | 29% | 21% | 16% | 22% | 27% | 16% | 1% | 2% | 46% | 11% | 23% |
| 房地产开发和运营 | 36% | 15% | 27% | 27% | 50% | 8% | 30% | 7% | 21% | 19% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 23% |
| 保险Ⅱ | 21% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 22% | 11% | 21% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
行业景气度趋势
高景气度行业
- ROE增速：稀有金属、农林牧渔、新能源动力系统
- 营业收入增速：新能源动力系统、稀有金属、电源设备
低景气度行业
- ROE增速：光学光电、证券Ⅱ、石油化工
- 营业收入增速：证券Ⅱ、保险Ⅱ、钢铁
风险提示
- 本报告为市场情况监控，不构成投资建议。
- 投资者需结合自身情况，独立评估信息，并考虑专业意见。
相关报告
- 《金融工程：金融工程-海外文献推荐第227期》（2022-06-09）
- 《金融工程：基金研究-高科技产业助推器，纳斯达克投资性价比凸显》（2022-06-08）
- 《金融工程：基金研究-数字经济核心支撑，通信产业链迎发展新机遇》（2022-06-07）
分析师信息
- 吴先兴：SAC执业证书编号 S1110516120001，wuxianxing@tfzq.com
- 何青青：SAC执业证书编号 S1110520080008，heqingqing@tfzq.com
总结
本报告提供了各中信行业在2022年6月10日的景气度分析，涵盖历史盈利与当前预期盈利指标。结果显示，新能源动力系统、稀有金属、半导体等行业发展较快，而房地产开发和运营、农林牧渔、光学光电等行业发展较慢。投资者应结合行业趋势、自身投资目标及风险承受能力，谨慎决策。
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