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A&D Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of fuel consumption and fleet modernization trends across major U.S. airlines for the period from 2019 to 2024, and updates for April 2025. It also covers developments in the defense and space sector, as well as other aerospace-related companies and events.

Key Findings

Fuel Consumption Trends

• April 2025 Fuel Consumption: U.S. airlines used 1.6BB gallons of fuel, up 1% y-o-y, but down 2% m-o-m. This is modestly above the average 2019 level of 1.5BB gallons/month.
• YTD Fuel Consumption: Remains stable compared to 2019 levels, despite y-o-y ASK growth of 2%.
• Fuel Efficiency Gains: From 2019 to 2024, ASKs grew at 7% annually, while fuel consumption grew at 4% annually, indicating improved fuel efficiency.
• Fleet Modernization: Airlines are shifting to newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft:
  • AAL: Boeing MAX/787 exposure increased from 5% to 16%.
  • DAL: Airbus A320neo/A350 exposure increased from 2% to 18%.
  • UAL: Boeing MAX/787 exposure increased from 6% to 30%.

Fuel Price and Impact

• Average Fuel Cost: $2.32/gallon in April 2025, down from $2.41 in March and $0.43 less than in April 2024.
• Crude Oil Prices: Brent/WTI crude oil prices increased 10-15% in May due to regional instability.
• Impact on EPS: A 5% change in fuel price could affect EPS by $5.25 (DAL) and $10.00 (UAL), while AAL is impacted by $1.00.

Specific Airline Performance

• AAL (American Airlines):

  • FY24 fuel consumption: 301K gallons/month, 1% lower than 2019.
  • Fleet modernization: 16% MAX/787.
  • Fuel consumption up 4.4% y-o-y, down from 9.1% in FY23.
  • 2 aircraft have been grounded due to maintenance issues.

• DAL (Delta Air Lines):

  • FY24 fuel consumption: 306K gallons/month, 2% higher than 2019.
  • Fleet mix: Airbus A320neo/A350 increased to 18%.
  • Fuel consumption up 4.3% y-o-y, down from 18.2% in FY23.

• UAL (United Airlines):

  • FY24 fuel consumption: 331K gallons/month, 12% higher than 2019.
  • Fleet mix: Boeing MAX/787 increased to 30%.
  • Fuel consumption up 5.3% y-o-y, down from 20.7% in FY23.

Other Aerospace Developments

• Airbus:

  • Delivered 220 aircraft through May 2025, representing 42% of its full-year estimate.
  • Plans to deliver 22 A320neo/A350 in 2025 and 37 in 2026.
  • Rolls-Royce received EASA and FAA certification for the first phase of its Trent 1000 durability package, which includes new HPT blades, software updates, and a new fuel spray nozzle.
  • The 787 order book is 72% GEnx, 7% Trent, and 21% undecided.

• Boeing:

  • Delivered 31 MAX aircraft in May, with 167 YTD.
  • Requested a 2-year extension for the MAX-7 exemption.
  • 787-8 crash: First full hull loss of the 787, with 242 passengers on board.

• Ryanair:

  • Agreed to purchase 30 Leap-1B engines for $500MM, to support its B737 Gamechanger and MAX-10 fleets.
  • SalamAir targets 35 aircraft by 2030, currently operating 13 A320neo/A321neo.

• Defense & Space:

  • DoD investment outlays fell 6% y-o-y in May to $23.4BB, with Navy leading the decline.
  • LMT received a $23.4BB procurement request for F-35 jets, down from 48 last year.
  • RTX secured a $536MM contract for SPY-6 radar systems and expanded electrification capabilities with new facilities in Wolverhampton, UK and Colomiers, France.
  • USAF is testing drone and fighter jet teamwork with a new Experimental Operations Unit (EOU).

Upcoming Events

• June 15: Paris Air Show + Cocktail Reception at The Peninsula, Paris.
• June 16: Paris Air Show Agenda.
• June 23: Paris Air Show 2025 Recap.
• July 15: NYC Lunch with ERJ CEO Francisco Gomes Neto.
• June 25: Commercial Aero Update with Barry Eccleston, former Airbus Americas CEO.

Investment Recommendations

• BUY: Airbus Group NV (€162.80), Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (p887.40), Safran Group (€258.10), The Boeing Company ($203.75), United Airlines Holdings ($77.43).
• HOLD: American Airlines Group ($10.90), American Express Co. ($297.99), Delta Air Lines ($48.88), General Dynamics Corp. ($279.93), Heico Corporation ($304.12), Lockheed Martin Corp. ($469.27), Northrop Grumman Corp. ($497.13), Parsons Corporation ($70.38), RTX ($140.98), Southwest Airlines Co. ($32.58).
• UNDERPERFORM: Wizz Air (WIZZ LN: £11.85).

Distribution of Ratings

Rating	Count	Percent
BUY	2107	60.48%
HOLD	1226	35.19%
UNDERPERFORM	151	4.33%

Risks and Disclosures

• The report does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors.
• Investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest due to Jefferies' business relationships with covered companies.
• Currency risk is noted for non-U.S. denominated financial instruments.
• Jefferies' ratings are based on a range of factors including market capitalization, growth, volatility, and expected total return.
• Franchise Picks include only BUY rated stocks, with varying stop-loss thresholds based on volatility.

Analyst Information

• Sheila Kahyaoglu | Equity Analyst
• Greg Konrad, CFA | Equity Analyst
• Ellen Page | Equity Associate
• Kyle Wenclawiak | Equity Associate

Summary

This report highlights the stability in fuel consumption for U.S. airlines in April 2025, despite a 1% y-o-y increase and 2% m-o-m decline, which may be attributed to lower fuel prices. Fleet modernization has been a key factor in improving fuel efficiency, with airlines like AAL, DAL, and UAL significantly increasing their exposure to newer aircraft models.

In the defense and space sector, DoD investment outlays and R&D have declined, while LMT and RTX have secured major contracts. RTX is expanding its electrification capabilities, which could reduce aircraft weight by 15-20%.

Aerospace companies such as Airbus, Boeing, and Rolls-Royce are making progress in fleet deliveries and engine upgrades, with Boeing facing a 787 crash and Airbus starting certification work on a 160-seat A220 variant.

Investment recommendations include BUY, HOLD, and UNDERPERFORM ratings, with Wizz Air being the only UNDERPERFORM rated company.

The report also includes upcoming events and disclosure information regarding Jefferies' relationships with covered companies.