2025-05-24-Jefferies-名创优品（9896）_2025年销售增长前景比盈利能力更具确定性；维持持有_11页_538kb

Miniso (9896 HK) Equity Research Report: May 25, 2025

• Rating: HOLD (Adjusted from previous rating)
• Price Target (PT): HK$36.00 per share (Previous: HK$20.57 per share)
  • Old PT (HK$20.57) was reduced by approximately -15%.
  • New PT (HK$36) aligns with revised net profit forecasts.
• Key Changes Post-1Q25 Earnings:
  • Sales: Q1 sales met or exceeded guidance. Management expects progressive sales growth acceleration throughout 2025 (each quarter).
  • Profitability (Adj NP): Missed market and JEF estimates due to higher operating expenses and margin compression (OPM down by -4ppt YoY).
  • Segment Performance:
    • China: Guided for low teens sales growth (incl. e-commerce), focus on Same-Store Sales, store closures to be determined.
    • Overseas: 40% sales growth target with acceleration in H2, opening 200-250 directly-operated stores; US is a key target market.
• Financial Summary (2024-2027E):
  • Revenue projected to grow from 16,994 MM CNY (2024) to 28,659 MM CNY (2027).
  • Net Profit projected to grow from 2,618 MM CNY (2024) to 4,170 MM CNY (2027).
  • PT based on DCF model (WACC 15.1%, Beta 2.0, TGR 1.0%), fair value HK$36 per share (includes HK$4.5/sh stake in YH based on 25% discount).
• Outlook & Risks:
  • Upside: Strong overseas market performance, potential improvement in OpEx ratio, successful franchise strategy.
  • Downside: Acquisition hangovers (YH integration risk, potential overextension), slower overseas expansion, product popularity sustainability, cannibalization from expanding Top Toy/DTC channels.
• Valuation & Catalysts:
  • Primary valuation: DCF.
  • Price sensitive to GP margin, OPM sustainability, store opening guidance, and commentary on YH integration.

Sale Highlights:

• Q1 YoY: Sales +18.9%, NP YoY: +4.8% (Adjusted NP -4.8%, up 0.8ppt in GPM, but OPM down -4ppt YoY).
• Store activity: ~95 net overseas openings, ~111 closures in China; overall ~200 store closures expected in 2025.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Maintain HOLD rating based on the fiscal 2025/26 outlook despite the slight price reduction, focusing on core business strength.

• Song #1 LINE-JEF recommends the price.

• Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a subset of the total 11-page report. Full due diligence recommended before investment.