2025-06-02-Jefferies-意昂集团（EOAN）_德国的电网改革会成为下一个催化剂吗_13页_788kb

E.ON Equity Research Summary

Rating: Hold
Target Price: €16.00 (+4% from €15.43)
Period: 12 Months

1. Key Points

• 40% YTD Stock Rally: Current valuation vs. peers suggests grid reform in Germany is critical for further outperformance.
• Target FY26 P/E: 14.0x; EV/EBITDA of 9.8x.
• Catalyst: June/July 2025 draft framework updates on German grid regulation.
• Upside Scenario: Requires significant regulatory improvement to push RoE >10% in FY29 (vs. JEF of 9%).
• Risk: Valuation in line with peers, gaps in catalyst timing.

2. Investment Thesis

• Hold Recommendation: Current valuation reflects expectations; further upside needs significant grid regulation improvement.
• Upside Scenario (Base Case): Organic growth in Networks/EIS, 3.5% DPS growth, margin improvement.
• Downside Scenario: Poor organic growth, worsening retail margins, negative regulation changes.

3. Financial Summary (Exhibit 4, 11, 12)

3.1 EBITDA (€m)

• 2024A: 9,049
• 2025E: 9,759 (Consensus: 9,685)
• 2026E: 9,528 (Consensus: 9,568)
• 2029E: 12,843

3.2 EPS (€)

• 2024A: 1.09
• 2025E: 1.15
• 2026E: 1.06
• 2029E: 1.53

3.3 EV/EBITDA (x)

• 2025E: 9.7 (JEF) vs. avg consensus 9.8
• 2026E: 10.0

3.4 Scenarios (FY29)

• High RoE: 10.8%
• Mid RoE: 9.6%
• Low RoE: 8.5%

4. Regulatory Impact

• Regulatory Parameters: All-in base RoE (currently ~9%), RoE improvement to >10% in FY29 is needed for >10% stock move.
• Key Updates: Draft framework decision due in June/July 2025; scope for WACC and benchmarking methodology.
• Timeline: Final decisions before Y26, details unclear as period is 2028-2033.

5. Relative Valuation

• EV/EBITDA (2029E): 9.1x vs peers e.g. Terna (8.7x), National Grid (10.8x).
• SOTP Valuation: Implied equity €36.5bn; downside scenario factors include retail EBIT and D&A.

6. Risk Factors

• Regulatory: Tightening grid returns, EU ETS impact.
• Competitive: Retail market competition, EIS margin pressure.
• Execution: Integration of RWE assets, synergy realization.

7. Catalysts

• Jun/Jul 2025: Grid Regulation Draft
• Dec 2025: FY25 Results
• Sustainability: EU ETS, 2030/2040 CO2 reduction targets.