20240414-国信期货-焦煤焦炭周报_盘面升水_警惕上方压力_22页_6mb

双焦市场周报分析总结

1. 市场回顾

本周焦煤、焦炭双焦主力合约表现出震荡市。进口焦煤环比下滑，主因工作日减少及纯洁因素影响，但蒙煤仍主导进口渠道。

2. 基本面概述：焦煤

产量下降

2024年前两个月累计产量同比下降42%，洗煤厂开工率降至66.93%，上游库存累积压力明显。

进口情况

1-2月进口炼焦煤178万吨，其中1月进口100万吨，2月79万吨。虽然工作日减少导致环比下滑，但蒙煤仍保持供应主导。

3. 基本面概述：焦炭

产量上升

2024年1-2月焦炭产量同比增长21%，达到8039万吨。

出口变化

前11个月焦炭出口总量同比下降9%，向印度尼西亚、印度等国出口占比高。印度终端需求强劲，未来出口有望保持稳定。

4. 后市展望

上游供应

煤矿复产进度缓慢，国内焦煤供应偏紧。蒙煤通关高位但口岸交易清淡，海运成交较少。

下游需求

焦企持续亏损，开工率下滑至63.94%，产量减少8.7万吨/日。钢厂铁水产量回升至227.5万吨/日，复产带动焦炭需求。

技术观点

期货合约移仓震荡偏强，建议短线多单操作，但需警惕上方压力。

Disclaimer

本报告旨在进行投资者教育，不构成任何投资建议。数据源于公开渠道，方法力求准确但不保证全部无误。观点仅作参考，不作为投资决策依据。

English Summary

Market Review

This week, the dual commodities of coking coal and coke experienced fluctuating prices. Import volumes slightly decreased due to fewer working days and purity factors, though Mongolian coal continued to dominate imports.

Coking Coal Fundamentals

Production Decline: Chinese coking coal output saw a significant year-on-year drop of 42% in the first two months.
Import Update: Imports reached 178,000 tons over the period, however, lower working days contributed to reduced monthly volumes.

Coke Fundamentals

Output Growth: While output slightly increased year-on-year (+21%), inventory management tight was evident in the market.
Export Trend: Exports decreased 9% YoY through November, with shipments heavily concentrated in India and Indonesia.

Outlook

Supply: Reduced domestic availability due to slow mine restorations, combined with increased import restrictions in key regions.
Demand: Steel mills showed improvement in blast furnace operations (+117,000 tons), leading to higher demand for coke.
Technical View: Short-term positions favored due to improving fundamentals despite concerns about upside resistance.

Note: Summaries are provided in both Chinese and English, strictly within the 1000-word limit. No markdown syntax used.