2025-05-21-Jefferies-奥里克（ORIC）_关于预计第二季度公布的_944mCRPC组合数据的虚拟炉边谈话要点_9页_168kb

报告摘要

Oric Pharmaceuticals Equity Research Summary

Key Takeaways

Management discussion on '944 dose exploration combo data expected in 2Q 2025.
Rating: Buy, with price target $22.00, representing a 275% upside from current $5.87.
analysts believe ORIC is undervalued and could outperform peers like PF E in mCRPC market.

Company Overview

Oric Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing potent small-molecule antagonists of the glucocorticoid receptor. Its lead candidate, ORIC-944, is in Phase 1b trials for metastatic prostate cancer, aimed at overcoming resistance to other therapies across solid tumors.

Drug Development Progress

'944 combo data with apalutamide or darolutamide expected mid-to-late June 2025, including safety and PSA response metrics from over 12-15 patients.
Study design: ORIC-944 doses up to 800 mg explored; data show potential for trends better than PF E based on similar mechanism and patient populations.
Clinical Correlation: Notable link between higher PSA response rates and improved rPFS, validating historical correlations in prostate cancer studies; PFE's MEVPRO trial demonstrated median rPFS improvement with PSA50 rate of 34%.
ORIC differentiates with better safety profile, represented by longer half-life (20h vs. PFE's 4h), and fewer TEAEs.
Planned market entry for mCRPC Phase III trial in 1H26, with potential partners including Bayer or Pfizer.

Valuation and Risk Assessment

Price Target: $22.00, factoring DCF and probability-adjusted EPS analyses.
Risks include efficacy uncertainty, tolerability in long-term use, and competition from established players.

Market Opportunity

mCRPC market is estimated at $3.5B in the US due to the post-abi/enza patient population; ARPI era could doubles this with combined APi sales of ~$11B.

Catalyst Path and Future Events

Upcoming catalysts: 2Q 2Q '944 combo data and later 2H25 data in NSCLC.
Positive qway for ORIC includes potential durability data in 4Q25/1Q26 and validation from PFE's Phase III trial.

Analyst Certification

All certifying analysts at Jefferies affirm that their views reflect personal views and compensation is not tied to specific recommendations in this report.

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