2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Extension_of_the_Policy_Support_InstrumentStaff_Report_Press_Release_62页_1mb

报告摘要

Rwanda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Extension of the Policy Support Instrument

Core Content

This document outlines the sixth review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Rwanda's request for extension of the PSI. It includes the staff report and press release from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), covering economic developments, policy discussions, and program performance as of May 31, 2013, following discussions in Kigali from April 5-18, 2013.

Main Challenges

Aid Reduction: Rwanda continues to face the challenge of adjusting to lower aid inflows, which have led to a budget support shortfall for FY2012/13 and FY2013/14.
Fiscal and Monetary Adjustments: The government has implemented fiscal tightening and monetary policy adjustments to align spending with available resources and maintain reserve buffers.
Exchange Rate Pressures: A spread of about 5% emerged between the official and market exchange rates due to foreign exchange demand and aid shortfall, which narrowed to 1.6% by late May 2013.

Outlook and Risks

Growth Projection: Real GDP growth is expected to ease modestly to 7.5% in 2013 and converge to about 7% annually in the medium term.
Inflation: Inflation is projected to average 5.6% in 2013, driven by exchange rate pass-through.
Risks: The outlook is subject to downside risks from further aid cutbacks, project delays, and a weaker global economy.

Key Policy Discussions

Short Term

Spending Adjustment: Align spending with available resources, while preserving priority expenditures.
Monetary Tightening: Maintain a tight monetary stance, allow real interest rates to rise, and increase exchange rate flexibility.
Private Sector Credit: Allow for private sector credit expansion while managing foreign exchange demand.

Medium Term

EDPRS2 Implementation: The second Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS2) will be the main focus, with an emphasis on resource mobilization, economic transformation, rural development, and youth employment.
Fiscal Strategy: The government aims to increase domestic revenue, reduce current spending, and reallocate funds to capital spending.

Program Performance

Quantitative Assessment Criteria (QAC): All QACs were met except two.
NFA Target Miss: The non-concessional borrowing ceiling was breached due to the euro bond issuance, but the impact on debt sustainability is minimal.
Structural Benchmarks (SB): Five out of six SBs were completed, with one rephased to September 2013.

Fiscal Policy

Supplementary Budget: A supplementary budget was approved in February 2013 to reduce contingent spending and delay payments.
Fiscal Deficit: The overall fiscal deficit is expected to be -5.9% of GDP in FY2013/14, with -2.9% excluding sovereign bond.
Revenue Measures: The government is expected to increase revenue by 0.3% of GDP through investment code changes, royalty tax on mining, electronic billing machines, and tax treaty renegotiations.
Spending Adjustments: Current spending is cut by 1.4% of GDP, and domestically-financed capital spending is reduced by 0.7%.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

Monetary Tightening: The NBR tightened monetary policy in the second half of 2012, leading to positive real interest rates and slower broad money growth.
Exchange Rate Flexibility: The exchange rate corridor was introduced, and the spread between official and market rates narrowed to 1.6% by late May 2013.
Reserve Money Target: A reserve money band of +/-2% was implemented to improve liquidity management.
Inflation Targeting: The NBR is working toward an inflation targeting framework, with technical assistance from the IMF.

Financial Sector Policy

Improvement in Indicators: Capital adequacy and asset quality in the financial sector have improved.
Non-Performing Loans: The ratio of non-performing loans has declined.
Profitability: High overheads still hinder profitability.
Supervision: The NBR is enhancing supervisory capacity, including cross-border supervision of regional banks.
SACCO Consolidation: Plans to consolidate SACCOs into one cooperative bank by end-2014 are on track.
FSDP2: The second Financial Sector Development Plan (FSDP2) aims to promote financial inclusion, mobilize domestic savings, and support consumer protection.

External Policy

Euro Bond Issuance: In late April 2013, Rwanda issued a $400 million euro bond, which was nine times oversubscribed and priced at 6.875%.
Use of Proceeds: Half of the proceeds will be used to repay government-guaranteed loans, and the other half to finance strategic projects, including the Nyabarongo hydro-power plant and the Kigali Convention Center.
Debt Sustainability: The impact of the euro bond on debt sustainability is considered minimal.

Key Projects and Initiatives

Nyabarongo Hydro-Power Plant: A 28 MW plant to increase electricity supply and reduce generation costs.
Electricity Access: Limited access to electricity (less than 20% of the population) is expected to improve with economic transformation and project completion.
EDPRS2 Objectives: The strategy aims to eradicate extreme poverty by 2018 and promote inclusive growth.

Conclusion

The staff report highlights Rwanda’s successful adaptation to lower aid, fiscal and monetary adjustments, and progress in implementing the PSI. Despite challenges, the government remains committed to economic transformation and debt sustainability, with a focus on domestic revenue mobilization, exchange rate flexibility, and strategic investment. The extension of the PSI is supported due to the need for time to prepare a new three-year program.